Population Changes In The Three Gorges Reservoir And Its Impact On Economic Growth

The Three Gorges Project is the construction of the largest-ever engineering project inChina, which is the largest water control project in the world. It has great comprehensivebenefit of flood control, power generation, navigation and water supply, and etc. The ThreeGorges Project has important significance in the process of modernization of our countrysocialism. Three Gorges reservoir area is unique geographical unit due to the formation of theThree Gorges Project, which directly sustains the environmental safety of the Three Gorgesreservoir area and the surrounding ecosystem. The population moves, steadily acquire wealthin Three Gorges reservoir area is the focus of current as well as future research.This paper based on the data of2000Census and2010Census, and some StatisticalYearbook data, built a population database system of Three Gorges reservoir uniquegeographical unit. This paper analyzed the spatial-temporal change of the population number,density and structure of26districts and counties in the Three Gorges reservoir, sinceChongqing became the municipality city. Combined with the new classical growth theory,analyzed the basic factors affecting economic growth, and selected the appropriate indicatorsto measure these factors. In the empirical analysis, used the multivariate regression method,and discussed the overall dependency ratio and its rate of growth, urbanization, populationdensity and rate of investment and other factors impact on per capita GDP growth in the ThreeGorges.Based on the analysis of spatial-temporal of population in the Three Gorges reservoir,and simulation of influence of population on economic growth in this area, this study found:(1) The population is growing faster in the Three Gorges reservoir, while whose populationagglomeration is very obvious. We can found that the total population growth of the ThreeGorges reservoir is higher than the national average growth rate,1997-2012. In2012, thetotal population of the Three Gorges reservoir reached21,254,600, accounting for theproportion of the total population of1.57%. Population mainly concentrated in the reservoirtail area in particular, especially in the downtown area of Chongqing City. And the populationagglomeration trend is very obvious.(2) The reservoir is still in the demographic dividend,but a serious loss of human capital. According to estimates, at present, in the Three Gorgesreservoir area demographic dividend, adequate library district human capital. As in recentyears, large numbers of people outside the reservoir outflow, especially in the abdominal arealibrary, so the library abdominal region’s population dependency ratio were47.14%, a levelclose to50%of the population burden heavier. The entire reservoir is currently in a net outflow of population, resulting in a huge loss of human capital.(3) The rapid development ofthe second industry base abdominal area, also need to strengthen the ability to absorb labor.According to the analysis, the rapid development of second industrial base abdominal area,but from the deviation of industrial structure, the second industry base abdominal area toabsorb labor ability is insufficient, which has a great potential for employment personnel.(4)The total dependency ratio Reservoir and its economic growth rate have a great effect oneconomic growth. By empirical findings, the total dependency ratio decreased reservoir every1percentage point increase in per capita GDP growth by0.28percentage points. And thegrowth rate of total dependency ratio decreasing by1percentage point of GDP per capitagrowth rate will rise0.48percentage points. Contrast to our previous total dependency ratioeffect on economic growth, the contribution of changes in the age structure of the reservoir oneconomic growth than the national average to great.Based on the above analysis and research, this paper will promote coordinated economicdevelopment in the Three Gorges reservoir several paths to explore the following:(1)Integrated and coordinated regional development, reasonably guide area of population transfer.(2) Making full use of the demographic dividend, to prevent the demographic dividendadverse impact of weakening.(3) In the internal reservoir to increase employmentopportunities and improve the security system of human resource development, the gradualelimination of the loss of human capital issues.