American Intelligence Estimates And Countermeasures On The Conflict Between The Soviet Union And Yugoslavia

After the establishment of the Federal People’s Republic of Yugoslavia, it wasalways considered as the most loyal ally of the Soviet Union. Compared to otherEastern European countries, Yugoslavia followed Moscow tightly on eitherrevolutionary or socialist-oriented degrees, so it was considered by the westerncountries as” the most loyal to the Soviet and the most radical and aggressive amongthe satellite states”. It was surprised to the west that Yugoslavia was expelled from theCommunist Party of Intelligence Agency on June1948, especially the diplomatic andintelligence agencies of the USA. Because before the confliction, the intelligencesystem almost did not get any evidences showing that the relationship between theSoviet and Yugoslavia has any abnormal. After the Confliction, the United States paidmore attention to Yugoslavia in order to know more about Yugoslavia situation.Declassified documents show that the United States has paid enough attention toYugoslavia during the conflict between the Soviet Union and Yugoslavia. Originally,the U.S. intelligence system focused on the development of trend between the Sovietand Yugoslavia, and the results of the assessments showed that reconciliation isimpossible. With the escalation of the confliction, U.S. intelligence agencies began toshift the keynote of their assessment to the possibility of the Soviet’s invasion toYugoslavia. Initially, the U.S. intelligence thought that the Soviet invasion ofYugoslavia possibility is very small. But after the outbreak of the Korean War, the U.S.diplomatic community, especially the Ambassador to Yugoslavia began to worryabout North Korea’s hostile situation just a feint, and its purpose is to divert theattention of the United States in the Balkans. So the Intelligence system increases itsattention to the military movements of the Soviet satellite states in the Balkans. Theassessment concluded that the Soviet Union is very likely to overthrow Tito’s regimeby military strikes.Facing the escalation of the potential military threat by the Soviet Union orEastern Group, out of the consideration of their own interests, the United States beganto give more economic or military, assistance to Yugoslavia, and these assistancehelped Yugoslavia break the extreme isolation of the situation. U.S. aids had playedan invaluable role in the continued existence and development of the Tito regime.Though assessments of the U.S. intelligence agencies seemed ambiguous sometimes, overall, the U.S. intelligence agencies had given more predictiveassessments on whether the Soviet Union and Eastern Group would use militarymeans to overthrow Tito’s government or not. At last these assessments were provedby the fact that there was no large-scale war breaking out between the Soviet andYugoslavia. Referring to intelligence assessment report, the U.S. decision-makersdraw scientific policies toward the Yugoslavia.