Advantages And Obstacles On Tunisia’s Path To Political Transition

Given the current political transition currently taking place in Tunisia, this paper examines the long term historical processes and recent developments that have taken place in Tunisia, and assess how these interact, in order to better understand the potential for political transformation within the nation.The beginnings of political transition we are seeing in Tunisia today were put into motion with the2011revolution, which itself began all of a sudden with an upset populace that had access to social networks. However, the success or failure of the political transition is not hinged on the conditions, or the seeming "success" of the revolution. While the particularities of the revolution itself may have been the product of contemporary economic and social woes and the ability of the revolutionaries to use Facebook to spread their fervor, it may be that the political transition Tunisia is currently undergoing has been made possible by certain underlying social, cultural and economic forces, that were at work in the Tunisian society far before the revolution occurred.This paper seeks to understand whether Tunisia has conditions that the scholarly community recognizes as being necessary and helpful for political change and democratization. In addition to a well-educated populace, a relatively high national income, gender equality and secular freedoms, scholars have included a mature population and homogenous society among factors considered to be pre-conditions for democratization, and also forces that will act as a catalyst to push a non-democratic society to experience political change, and possibly democratization.My research shows that in Tunisia, these conditions have been gradually developing over decades. Tunisia’s population has been slowly maturing, Tunisians are increasingly well-educated, and the nation’s economy is ever-developing, particularly at the macroeconomic level. Also significant is what was not at work in the Tunisian society. Scars from the colonial legacy have been minute in the Tunisian case, compared to other previously colonized nations. Islamic fundamentalism is likewise at a low in Tunisian society.The main reasons behind the revolution itself, however, specifically those economic problems of regional disparity and unemployment, have proved to be a challenge to Tunisia’s transition. Some analysts have said that these issues may "derail" the transition process.There is also the issue of political turmoil. While not a cause of the revolution, it is a division amongst members of society, has caused instances of conflict, and may also pose a threat to the transition. The existence of certain conditions in Tunisia, mentioned above and elaborated on in this paper, provide evidence for the argument that democracy can indeed take root in Tunisia, at a time when some are beginning to doubt whether the transition will come to fruition. This paper will seek to analyze and understand the existence and function of these conditions in the Tunisian society in relation to the development of democracy. It will also consider how the microeconomic problems and issue of political turmoil could counteract the benefits of these conditions.