The Analysis Of The Dynamic Process Of The Game Between China And Vietnam In The South China Sea

The dispute between Vietnam and China in the South China Sea is the most significant, and Vietnam has occupied much more islands and islets which belong to China. Therefore, the paper selected the two maritime conflicts between China and Vietnam in the South China Sea as an example, using game theory and models from the book Conflict among Nations which written by Glenn Snyder and Paul Die sing, to analyze the game process in the South China Sea dispute between China and Vietnam.The first part introduces the basic game theory first; focusing on several game models which will be used in the analysis, such as chicken model, bully model, protector model. And proposed the concept of the Bargaining power, the bargaining power includes two dimensions of military power and alliances. The basic argument of this paper is that conversion of the game model is caused by changes of the bargaining power. Strategy selection order for the participants in the different game model is not the same, so the balanced result of the conflict.This paper focuses on the analysis of the Xisha naval battle in1974and "3.14" naval battle in1988. In this part, we not only analyzed the military power of China and Vietnam, and also the focus of the alliance. Inside, the discussion of the changes between allies inks most part, such as the US-Vietnam relations, China-Vietnam relations and Sino-Soviet relations. Through analysis we can see the changes of game status in both sides. In the two naval battles, the Bargaining power is significantly stronger than that of Vietnam, China played the role of bully in the conflict, Vietnam chose to retreat. The main reason is that Vietnam cannot get strong support from allies there, and Vietnam against China alone, its position is very fragile.China won victories in the two conflicts, and achieved its strategic goals. China has recovered all of the Xisha Islands in1974after the Xisha Battle, advancing southward in the forefront of the South China Sea300km; The victory of "3.14" naval battle in1988improved the status of China in the Spratly Islands, and China has successful controlled six reefs to create the conditions for the future to recover the remaining Spratly Islands.In this paper, the analysis illustrates the following factors which influence China to resolve the dispute in the South China Sea, including the strength of the navy and air force, the rival alliance, the major powers, especially the U.S. position and other factors. The end of the article also talked about the development of the situation in the South China Sea after the Cold War, especially the transformation of the U.S. position and the enhancement of ASEAN collective power. This Article could provide the inspirations for China to maintain sovereignty in the South China Sea, and also to regain the occupied islands and reefs.