Analyzing Impact Factors Of China’s Carbon Dioxide Emissions Based On The STIRPAT Model

The worsening of greenhouse effect year by year is threatening the earth, and how to reduce the emissions of the greenhouse gasses has been an imminent problem in the academic circles. Carbon dioxide is not only the main greenhouse gas, but also the by-product of economic development, population growth, urbanization and industrialization. Controlling the carbon dioxide emissions may hinder economic development, but good ecological environment is the basis for human beings to survival and development. So we need to seek a road which can make the economic and the environment develop friendly. Based on the qualified carbon dioxide emissions, the economic will go forward chronically and healthy. This paper mainly analyze the the impact factors of China’s carbon dioxide emissions to formulate relevant policy suggestions.Firstly according to descriptive statistics, the paper summaries each economic indicator of the present China, for example GDP, per capita GDP, the size of the population, urbanization, energy consumption, energy intensity, the carbon dioxide emissions, the emission intensity, age structure. And then based on the western development policy of2008, it divides the regions and summaries some economic indicators of each region.Secondly, this paper adopts electricity(heat) sharing method to estimate the quantity of carbon dioxide emissions for30provinces of China covering the years from1995to2011, and uses the modified STIRPAT method to decompose carbon emission into five factors effect, such as the size of population, per capita GDP, technical efficiency, urbanization, age structure. According to collecting data, it sets the provincial level panel data form1995to2011, and regresses the driving forces using dynamic panel estimation method. What’s more, it verifies the CKC theory. The result shows that:(1) CKC theory fits in the relationship between the China’s carbon dioxide emissions and the growth of affluence;(2) the carbon dioxide emissions of the last period, population and energy intensity have significant positive impact on China’s carbon dioxide emissions, while urbanization and age structure also have positive impact but not significant. As for each region, the results of static panel estimation show that:(1) CKC theory fits all the three regions.;(2) the energy intensity, urbanization, the size of the population are respectively the most important impact factors in the east, middle and west region.At last, based on the above statistical and empirical results, the paper puts forward some relevant policy suggestions:(1) put the development of new energy and reducing the energy intensity on the first place;(2) utilize effective policy suggestions to facilitate the harmonious development between economic and environment;(3) control the size of population, and strengthen environment awareness. As for each region:(1) the east region focuses on developing new energy and upgrading the industrial structure;(2) the middle region ought to slow the development of urbanization and industrialization to reduce the energy intensity;(3) vigorously develop the economic of the west region to split population of the east and west regions, and insist on the related policy, such as western development program.