| Under the background of "carbon peaking" and "carbon neutrality",this study focuses on the relationship between urban development and carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin,aiming to reveal the impact of urban development on carbon emissions.This study takes municipal administrative units in the Yellow River Basin as the research area and takes the period from 2000 to 2020 as the research time series.From the perspective of carbon sources and sinks in land use,based on land cover data,corrected nighttime lighting data,and provincial energy consumption carbon emissions data in the Yellow River Basin,the urban carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin were fitted and estimated.Based on the stage theory of urban development,the theory of regional spatial structure,the theory of sustainable development and other theoretical foundations,and combined with the theory of the 3E system,the impact of urban development on carbon emissions in the Yellow River basin was constructed,and the impact of urban development on carbon emissions was comprehensively analyzed.On the one hand,this study evaluated the impact of comprehensive,population,economic,social,land,and ecological urbanization levels on carbon emissions based on the phased characteristics of urban development in the Yellow River Basin.On the other hand,this study starts from the evolution characteristics of urban structure in the Yellow River Basin and analyzed the impact of urban land use structure,urban functional structure,and urban network structure on carbon emissions.Finally,based on the research results,this study proposed targeted carbon reduction strategies for cities in the Yellow River Basin.This study is of great significance for promoting ecological protection and high-quality development in the Yellow River Basin,building a national ecological security barrier,and providing reference and empirical support for achieving China’s commitment to the world’s "Dual Carbon" goals.The main research content is as follows:Based on land cover data,nighttime lighting data,and carbon emissions data from energy consumption in various provinces of the Yellow River Basin,the urban carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin were estimated.Exploratory spatial data analysis and semi variogram were used to analyze the spatiotemporal variation characteristics of carbon emissions.The results indicate that:(1)During the research period,the carbon emissions of cities in the Yellow River Basin continue to increase,with energy consumption carbon emissions being the main carbon source.The total amount of carbon sources in the entire basin far exceeded the total amount of carbon sinks,and the carbon emissions in the downstream are higher than those in the middle and upstream cities.(2)The carbon emissions of cities in the Yellow River Basin mainly evolve from provincial and sub provincial cities to surrounding areas,presenting a concentrated and contiguous distribution trend from point to area.(3)There is a significant spatial positive correlation in carbon emissions from cities in the Yellow River Basin,with local spatial clustering showing a stepped distribution.The spatial scope of hot spots is increasingly concentrated in Shandong Province,and the spatiotemporal differentiation and evolution direction of carbon emissions is mainly in the east-west direction.From the perspective of population,economy,society,land and ecological urbanization,the comprehensive evaluation system of urbanization in the Yellow River basin was constructed.The coupling coordination degree model was used to analyze the coupling coordination relationship between urbanization and carbon emissions.With the help of GTWR model,the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of urbanization level on carbon emissions was analyzed.The results indicate that:(1)From 2000 to 2005,urbanization entered a stage of low-level improvement,from 2005 to 2015 it was a stage of rapid development,and from 2015 to 2020 it was a stage of steady development.High level cities are distributed in the provincial capital cities and Shandong Province,in a "dot shaped" and "block shaped" distribution.(2)The coupling degree,coordination degree,and relative development degree between the comprehensive urbanization level and carbon emissions in the Yellow River Basin and the upper,middle,and lower reaches show an inverted "U" shape,and the two gradually evolve into a confrontational state.The coupling degree is mainly in cities with antagonistic and break-in stages in the upstream,and in cities with break-in and highly coupled stages in the downstream.There is no high-quality coordination level in the entire basin,and the coordination relationship needs to be optimized.The spatial differences in relative development have become larger,and the carbon emissions of the entire basin have gradually surpassed the level of urbanization.(3)The coupling degree between carbon emissions and urbanization in all dimensions shows an inverted "U" shape,and the coupling relationship has evolved into a running in state,with the coordination relationship basically maintained at a high-level coordination level.Population,society,land urbanization,and carbon emissions are in a relatively synchronous critical state,while economic and ecological urbanization lags behind carbon emissions.(4)The level of population urbanization in the Yellow River Basin has the most prominent impact on carbon emissions,and the impact of social urbanization is also quite prominent.Based on the information entropy,balance degree and dominance model,measure the order and balance degree of urban land structure,build a decoupling effort model,analyze the factors influencing the decoupling of construction land and carbon emissions,and explore the spatial effect of various types of construction land on carbon emissions using a spatial measurement model.The results indicate that:(1)During the study period,the spatial difference of information entropy of urban land use structure in the whole basin and the upper,middle and lower reaches narrowed,and the urban land use structure gradually evolved from disorder to order.Residential land maintains a dominant position in the dominant land category,while the dominant role of commercial and public facility land,road traffic land,and green space is enhanced.(2)The spatial relationship between urban construction land and carbon emissions in the entire watershed and upstream,middle,and downstream is mainly characterized by negative decoupling of expansion.Residential land,commercial public facility land,road traffic land,green space,and carbon emissions are also negatively decoupled from the expansion.The relationship between industrial land,storage land,and municipal public facility land and carbon emissions is mainly characterized by expanding negative decoupling and strong negative decoupling.The decoupling state between construction land and carbon emissions is not ideal.(3)The reduction of construction land in the Yellow River Basin has made efforts to achieve ideal decoupling,while the efficiency of technological innovation and the intensive utilization of construction land have made efforts to achieve ideal decoupling.The expansion of municipal and commercial public facility land not only promotes the increase of carbon emissions in the city but also has a significant negative spillover effect on carbon emissions in neighboring cities.The expansion of road traffic land in this city has a significant negative spillover effect on the carbon emissions of neighboring cities.Based on the location entropy model to identify the basic functions of cities,the spatial relationship between industrial functions and carbon emissions was analyzed through bivariate spatial autocorrelation,and the impact of industrial functions on carbon emissions was explored using geographic detectors.The results indicate that:(1)During the research period,the public service industry gradually became an important industrial functional department in the entire basin,and industry became the main industrial function in middle and downstream cities.(2)The spatial agglomeration degree of industrial and construction functions and carbon emissions first increases and then decreases.The significant reduction in spatial differences between the functions and carbon emissions of the transportation and postal storage industry,financial real estate industry,and transportation and postal storage industry.The spatial agglomeration effect between the functions of commercial and technological information service industries and carbon emissions has been enhanced.The spatial agglomeration degree of the functions and carbon emissions of the lifestyle service industry has weakened.The functions of the public service industry and carbon emissions are spatially dispersed.(3)The influence of the technology information service industry,financial real estate industry,and the public service industry has increased.After the interaction of detection factors,the industrial and technological information service industries have gradually become powerful factors in interactive detection.Based on the daily data of population migration in Baidu,the characteristics of urban network structure in the Yellow River basin at the national and watershed scales were measured by social network analysis method,and the spatial heterogeneity of the impact of urban network degree centrality on carbon emissions was analyzed by MGWR model.The results indicate that:(1)The central core cities of the national urban network are mainly mnicipalities directly under the central government and provincial capital cities,with stronger urban attraction than radiation.The degree centrality of the urban network follows a "Hu Huanyong Line" distribution pattern.The middle centrality and proximity centrality show a clear "point like" distribution pattern,with high value points centered around provincial capital cities,municipalities directly under the central government,and sub provincial cities playing a controlling role in the national network.(2)The network density of urban connections in the Yellow River Basin is relatively low,and the linkage effect between cities in the entire basin is insufficient.The core cities with network centrality are mainly provincial capital cities and sub provincial cities,with stronger urban attraction than radiation.The high value points of degree centrality are most densely distributed in Henan and Shandong provinces.(3)The correlation between network centrality and carbon emissions of cities in the Yellow River Basin at the national scale is higher than that of network centrality and carbon emissions at the basin scale,with the highest correlation between degree centrality and carbon emissions.(4)The network structure of population connections at the national scale has a more significant impact on carbon emissions.For every 1% increase in the degree centrality of the urban network,carbon emissions increase by an average of0.764%.The impact of urban network degree centrality on carbon emissions is more significant in spatial heterogeneity at the national scale.The high value areas affected are in a "block like" shape,located in the Shandong Peninsula urban agglomeration,the Central Plains urban agglomeration,the Guanzhong Plain urban agglomeration,and the Hubao Eyu urban agglomeration area.Based on the background of "dual carbon",this paper proposes carbon reduction strategies for urban development in the Yellow River Basin from seven aspects: ecological carbon sequestration,energy consumption;urban-rural coordination,green development;land development,land efficiency;urban functions,industrial structure;urban connectivity,smart transportation;technological innovation,talent cultivation;policy mechanisms,low carbon for all people. |
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