The Effect And Mechanism Of Interval On The Foresight Bias Of Judgement Of Learning

Judgment of learning (that is JOL, namely) is an important form of metamemory monitoring judgment, which provides a basis for the subsequent metamemory control processes, such as the time allocation, the re-learn selection, and so on. When individuals learn new material, they will constantly make the assessments and judgements that how they grasp the items for the determination of the following study plan. However, a foresight bias often occurs in the individuals’ JOL, that is, an overestimation of their grasped degree. This leads to a premature stop learning, and the actual level of the learning is far short of the requirements. How to improve the accuracy of JOL is therefore become one of the key research issues. According to the delayed-JOL effect, the interval between learning and judgment is an important factor affecting the accuracy of JOL. How it affects, So far, however, researchers have only got a same conclusion about the influence of interval on relative accuracy, while the specific mechanism is still controversial, and rarely the absolute accuracy is involved. In view of these, the effect of interval on foresight bias and its mechanism will be studied in this work in accordance with the absolute accuracy of JOL.This study includes two experimental parts. In Experiment1, LJR paradigm is adopted, foresight bias is aroused by a manipulation of the associative strength and direction of double words, to examine the effects of interval on the foresight bias and the absolute accuracy of JOL, In Experiment2, a further division of the interval is made, to determine the relationship between the length of interval and the degree of foresight bias. At the same time, the PRAM paradigm is used to explore the reason why the interval affects the foresight bias, that is to say, whether the delayed JOLs’ effect relies on the elimination of the interference in short-term memory. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The interval can affect the foresight bias. Under the conditions that foresight bias appear in the immediate JOL, delayed JOL can reduce or even eliminate bias, and thus enhancing the absolute accuracy of JOL.(2) The effect of interval on the foresight bias is mainly based on the elimination of interference in short-term memory. Delayed JOL can eliminate the interference of short-term memory, allowing the individuals an access and use of the retrieval fluency for JOL, thereby reducing the JOL and ultimately eliminating foresight bias.