| 1.BackgroundStroke (stroke) is one of the twentieth century an important disease threat to human health, with the development of society and its incidence has gradually increased the trend, some developed countries have taken the interventions in the prevention and treatment of stroke also achieved some success. Stroke is the world today, especially in our platoon continued to gradually advance the cause of death of their disability has been ranked first attracted attention more and more professionals, but also led to growing fears of stroke. World Health Organization survey results show:the incidence of stroke ranked first in the world, more than double the U.S. higher. The third cause of death in China survey results show that stroke is the first cause of death in our country. The results of foreign intervention on the incidence of stroke studies indicate that the incidence of stroke is largely preventable, through human intervention can reduce the incidence or reduce the disease and reduce disability. In ancient times our country has come to understand the environmental factors and the occurrence of the disease have a close relationship, laid the foundation for future environmental medicine. In the course of human life continue to find practical impact of climate change on human health is very large. Twenty-four solar is the people of the Yellow River basin summed up by life experiences to guide life time resume, Chinese medicine also originated in the Yellow River Basin. Linqing City is located in the Yellow River, a temperate monsoon climate, four distinct solar terms, the incidence of stroke research from the perspective of twenty-four solar terms, combined with modern meteorological knowledge, people twenty-four solar both of the Yellow River for thousands of years summarize the laws of time, but also for thousands of years with the summary of the passage of time variation of meteorological factors, the time span is not easy for data processing, the results are likely to guide the lives of people practice, guiding people to the prevention and treatment stroke. Thus, changes in the twenty-four solar terms, to study the incidence of stroke Linqing law has a very important special significance.Generalized linear models (generalized linear model, GLM) and generalized additive model (generalized additive models, GAM) is an important advance in the development of the past three decades in the field of statistics. Currently two models have been widely used in various fields. GAM is to further extend the generalized linear model, it can be a complex non-linear relationship exists between the variables and the dependent variable in a number of different functions added into the model and form fitting.2.ObjectiveThe incidence of stroke Linqing, according to statistics throttle changes, and meteorological factors and the same period for comparison, univariate correlation analysis and multivariate regression analysis found that the incidence of stroke in the twenty-four solar terms in the transformation process law analysis in the twenty-four solar terms in the transformation process, the meteorological factors affecting the incidence of stroke.3.Research MethodsLinqing City Health Bureau based in gynecological get4February2013to February3,2014the incidence of stroke information and data. Stroke in this study include cerebral hemorrhage, subarachnoid hemorrhage, cerebral thrombosis, cerebral embolism, transient ischemic attack, cerebral infarction. Time of onset or hospital outpatient registration. In this study, meteorological data provided by the Bureau of Meteorology Linqing February4,2013to February3,2014synchronous meteorological data, including:daily average temperature, minimum temperature, sunshine hours, the average pressure, day The minimum relative humidity. Based on the average daily temperature, daily minimum temperature, sunshine hours, the average air pressure, relative humidity to calculate the date of the minimum daily average temperature of each solar terms, the average daily minimum temperature of each solar terms, the average number of hours of sunshine per solar terms, average daily per throttle pressure, each The average daily minimum relative humidity throttle, organize data, aggregated into form.Using SPSS16.0software for data processing, to the number of stroke onset as the dependent variable to meteorological factors as independent variables, the use of single-factor correlation analysis and multiple stepwise regression analysis, were investigated for each throttle meteorological factors of stroke onset with the same period the number of indicators relationship, to identify relevant factors and draw timing diagram. MGCV use R2.15.2software modules generalized additive model simulation and quantitative analysis to explore relations in the twenty-four solar terms in the process of changing meteorological factors and the incidence of stroke.4.Results and analysis:(1) Linqing stroke onset obvious rule twenty-four solar terms. The incidence of road between the highest Waking of Insects, vernal equinox, Qingming, Gu Yu, in the Great Heat, Big Chill throttle lowest incidence. In addition, between the winter solstice and Xiao-Man and Grain in Ear and Osamu, the incidence of stroke also has a small peak.(2) Linqing stroke occurs with average daily temperatures rise throttle increased incidence, at the same temperature, the heating and cooling of the incidence of stroke is not the same, that is, cause stroke not the root cause of the temperature itself, but the change in temperature changes caused by the body’s functions. Fitting result meteorological factors and the relationship between stroke onset:the average daily temperature solar term effect of onset of stroke significantly, the relative risk of the average daily temperature for the throttle0.962(95%CI:0.958-0.966).(3) Overall trend in the relationship between the incidence of stroke and Linqing throttle average daily minimum temperature is the lowest temperature in the solar term daily average more than4.24degrees later, with the rate of change of temperature rise in the incidence of stroke is not, in lower incidence. The average minimum temperature gradually reduce the gas, when the minimum temperature is below0.71degrees later, the incidence of stroke increased gradually. Fitting result meteorological factors and the relationship between stroke onset:An average daily minimum temperature solar term effects of stroke significantly, the relative risk of moral courage average daily minimum temperature of0.974(95%CI:0.970-0.978).(4) Onset throttle daily average pressure and stroke was statistically significant, but the use of R2.15.2software MGCV module generalized additive modeling and quantitative analysis of the model obtained when the correlation coefficient is small, indicating that the observation and study process, interference also can not rule out that some factors, interferes markedly between dependent and independent variables.(5) The average number of hours of sunshine and average minimum humidity in this study, the use of R2.15.2software MGCV module simulation and quantitative results and generalized additive model of stroke occurs when the analysis was not statistically significant.5:Conclusions and recommendationsAccording to the research results, the following conclusions can be drawn:(1) The incidence of Linqing stroke24solar term is obvious, the highest incidencebetween the waking of insects, the spring equinox, Guyu solar term Qingming, in thegreat heat, solar term, it is the lowest incidence rate.(2) Associated with the solar term and the incidence of Linqing City MeteorologicalFactors of stroke, especially with the biggest solar term mean daily air temperature and solar term average daily minimum temperature correlation.(3) Was statistically significant morbidity and solar term average pressure in Linqingstroke, but the simulation and quantitative analysis of generalized additive model using R2.15.2software MGCV module when the correlation coefficient is smaller, thatduring the observation and research, some interference factors to be excluded.(4) The city of Linqing stroke and solar term average daily sunshine duration and the mean minimum temperature had no statistical significance.(5) The relationship between24solar term transformation and stroke in Linqing,observe the time period is relatively short, weather factor observation is still relatively small, need further study.Based on the above conclusions suggested as follows:(1) In order to reduce the incidence of stroke rate, between the waking of insects, the spring equinox, Guyu solar term Qingming, should improve the prevention, pay attention to timely take preventive medicine, light diet, proper exercise, stable blood pressure, lower blood sugar, blood fat and so on.(2) In average temperature and minimum temperature lower days, in order to improve the prevention of stroke, especially in lower temperature, prevent and averagetemperature and minimum temperature is also lower day should pay more attention to the stroke.(3) The correlation about24solar term and the incidence of stroke in Linqing City, we still need further study in the factors of time and the impact on.(4) Make full use of the knowledge of Chinese medicine, to prevent the occurrence of stroke. |
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