| ObjectiveTo understand, the epidemiological characteristics of hospital-treated injury happened from2006to2011in Chengyang district, Qingdao City, and to explore the applications of time series analysis in forecasting hospital-treated injury surveillance by trying to establish the mixed autoregressive moving average model (ARIMA model) of hospital-treated injury incidence. Furthermore, to provide evidence for developing hospital-treated injury prevention and control strategies and measures.MethodsThe hospital-treated injury surveillance system was used to collect the data of hospital-treated injury in Chengyang district from2006to2011. Descriptive epidemiology and analytical epidemiology methods were conducted on the hospital-treated injury data for understanding the epidemiological characteristics and identifying the related factors of hospital-treated injury; ARIMA model was established based on the month hospital-treated injury incidence, and the constructed model was used to predict the month hospital-treated injury incidence in2012which was compared with the actual incidence.ResultsFrom2006to2011,51995hospital-treated injury cases had been reported in Chengyang district, the ratio of male to female was2.14:1. The mainly injured cases were young adults, for those25-44years of age accounting for38.76%. The rate of local residents (63.27%) was higher than the mobile residents. The level of education was most in junior high school (48.10%), followed by high school/secondary special school (21.78%) and primary school (18.59%). The top three occupations were farming, fishing, and forestry (18.33%), construction, transportation, equipment operator and related worker (15.00%), and house worker (12.09%). The peak time of hospital-treated injury occurred was at7:00-11:00and13:00-20:00, August.The three leading causes of hospital-treated injury were falling (30.40%), traffic accident (27.50%), and blunt instrument injury (21.69%), but varied by registered residence, occupation, and age. Falling (36.13%) was the leading method of hospital-treated injury in local residents, while blunt instrument injury in mobile population. Falling accounted for more than50%of all injuries among school students, preschool children, house worker, and the retired.Traffic accident was the leading method of hospital-treated injury among commercial and service industry, staff, jobless, and farming, fishing, and forestry. For adults25-44years of age, traffic accident was the leading method of hospital-treated injury accounting for32.14%, however, for children under15years of age as well as elderly people over64years of age, falling accounted for more than one-half of all injuries.The main places of happening hospital-treated injury were at road/street (32.39%), industrial and construction site (21.81%), and home (19.92%). Leisure activities (37.25%), working (25.34%), and driving and riding a vehicle (21.89%) were the three major activities when injuries took place. Male, older age, mobile population, illiterate/semiliterate, and self-injury/suicide were important risk factors for moderate and sever injury. Traffic accident, working at a paid job, unknown-intention and self-injury/suicide, sever injury were important risk factors for injury-death.A total of231self-injury/suicide cases were reported during5years, the ratio of male to female was1.36:1, knife/sharp instrument injury(68.03%) was the major manner of self-injury/suicide followed by poisoning(19.91%), the main related factors were mobile population, older age, at home, in night.A total of5778intentional injury cases were reported, the ratio of male to female was3.72:1, blunt instrument(68.03%) was the leading mechanism of intentional injury, the main related factors were male, young and midlife adult, mobile population, low-educated, farming, fishing, and forestry occupation, in night, and at public residential.ARIMA(1,0,0)(0,1,1)12model could appropriately fit the hospital-treated injury incidence in time series which was established based on the hospital-treated injury surveillance data from2006to2011, but the prediction result of2012was significantly higher than actual data.ConclusionsRisks of hospital-treated injury were high for male, young and midlife adult, and low-educated people. Falling and traffic accident were the two leading mechanisms of injury. Road/street, industrial and construction site, and home were the three leading places of injury. Hospital-treated injury intervention should be taken on the basis of the epidemiological characteristics of injury varied by sex, age, registered residence, occupation. The ARIMA model could be used to predict for the hospital-treated injury incidence of short-term time series. In order for the stability and accuracy, the ARIMA model should make further adjustment by adding new data. |
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