The Study On Medical Care Cost Of Shenzhen City In2010

ObjectiveWe compared the three different insurance in basic situation and hospital medical expenses.We analyzed factors on hospital expense and forecasted amount of medical insurance fundpayment, in order to provide suggestions for medical insurance policy.MethodTo collect the medical insurance data of comprehensive medical insurance, hospital medicalinsurance and migrant workers medical insurance in Shenzhen from July2010to June2011.We used descriptive analysis and Chi-square test to compare the difference amongpatients with different medical insurances, used Generalized Linear Regression to explore thefactors on hospitalization expense, used ARIMA model to forecast amount of medicalinsurance fund payment.Results1. Gender, census register type, staff category, age, total hospital expense, drugs expense,medical expense have significantly influence among three different insurance types. Themajority participants of migrant works medical insurance are males and non-Shenzhen censusregister population. The migrant works medical insurance is located in lower level.2. Gender, census register type, staff category, age, medical insurance type and reimbursementrate have significant effects on hospital expense (P<0.001). 3. We figure out the ARIMA (0,1,1)(0,1,0)12model to forecast medical insurance funddisbursement of2010. The average relative error between forecast value and actual value is3.00%.ConclusionThe three medical insurance have variety feature. The payment and the level of protection ofmigrant works medical insurance are low. The age and staff category of comprehensivemedical insurance participants are harmonious. Several factors have effects on hospitalexpense. With ARIMA model, forecast value sequence chart demonstrated forecast valuecarry on good track.