Research Of The Effect Of High Temperature And Heat Wave On Weather Sensitive Diseases In Nanjing Area

The association between heat waves in summer and human health has gradually become a hot issue due to global climate changing and city development in the world. This paper discussed the influence of heat waves to Nanjing city based on the investigation of the characteristic of the temporal distribution of high-temperature days and heat waves. According to the order of death causes during heat waves, the prediction models were established, to provide scientific basis for prevent and control the adverse effect between heat waves and human health. Specific results are as follows:1.. The average number of death was larger in heat waves period than no-heat waves, whether male or female, average number of death are increased with the increase of age, and increasing trend was significantly of male at41-50years old, while female in the same age group have no such phenomenon, after the age of60, the average number of death was maximum between both male and female.2-. The relative risk values of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases were largely affected by the maximum temperature of the very day and Iag2, the relative risk reached its highest1.204(95%CI:1.110～1.306) at the very day and1.124(95%CI:1.013～1.247) at day2after the lag effect. Man was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of Iag2and Iag4, while woman was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of lagl, Iag2and Iag3. People over60years old, who was affected by the maximum temperature of that very day, Iag2and Iag4, and the corresponding relative risk values were greater than1, contrarily, the lag effect of adults by aged16-60were not obviously. The prediction values of cardiovascular and cerebrovascular diseases by generalized additive model (GAM) were close to the actual mortality, and the trend of rise and decline was similar.3、The death of respiratory diseases was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the very day, lagl and Iag6in the heat waves, and the most important factor was the maximum temperature of the very day, its relative risk values was0.886(95%CI:0.771-0.972). Man was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of lag6, while woman was mainly affected by the maximum temperature of the very day and lagl. People over60years old, was affected by the maximum temperature of the very day, lagl and lag6. The prediction values of respiratory diseases by generalized additive model (GAM) were close to the actual mortality, and the trend of rise and decline was similar.