| Spatial databases of regional topography, weather, and soil conditions were established separately with the help of GIS. Based on these databases, the maps of potential suitability areas for wheat (Triticum aestivum L.) in China and its variation trend under the future climat scenario were evaluated with a GIS-based Multi-Criteria Evaluation (MCE).The results indicated that:1) The mainly identified potential suitability areas for spring wheat displayed a band-like distribution from northeast to southwest of China. Some areas at the central and southwest parts of Jilin province, the south part of Heilongjiang province and the east part of Inner Mongolian were very high suitable areas for spring wheat. Very high and high suitability areas for winter wheat in China were:Henan, Jiangsu, Shanghai, Liaoning, Shandong, and Tianjin. Shaanxi, Sichuan, Beijing, Chongqing, Jilin, Anhui, Ningxia, Yunnan, Shanxi, Heilongjiang, Hebei, Guizhou, Hubei, Taiwan, Gansu Provinces. This corresponds well with the actual distribution of existing wheat plantation sites.2) The suitability areas for both spring wheat and winter wheat displayed a northward shift under the future climat scenario. The suitability areas for spring wheat reduced from 1,044,703km2 to 1,010,867km2, with a reduce of 30.4%, while the suitability areas for winter wheat increased from 2,093,710km2 to 2,324,458 km2, with an increase of 11.1%.3) The change of the suitability areas for wheat in the forest-grassland ecozone was evident. Under the future climat scenario, the suitability areas for spring wheat will increase from 30.24% to 33% in this ecozone and the suitability areas for winter wheat will increase from 1.7% to 14.59%.4) The research results have been applied to develop "China Crop Mapping Decision System" and connected with the internet to facilitate the work of decision-makers and farmers. |
