Initial Application Of Risk Assessment Of Epidemic Incoming In Large-Scale Pig Farm

Now, Animal health risk analysis is an important technical way of the implementation of internationally in animal scientific management, a universal tool for the scientific management of animal health events, It play a big role in animal disease prevention and control、protection of animal food、the environmental pollution risk reduced of the aquaculture industry. In this paper, this technology was used to analysis the occurrence of the disease on the pig farm, and the disease introduction into a pig farm was used as a example, for this example, the mathematical technology was developed to evaluate the possibility and consequences of the disease introduction. And then, the analytic hierarchy process and fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method was combined in semi-quantitative risk assessment studies of epidemic incoming scale-farm. Finally, The management measures was proposed to help the manager make a decision in animal disease prevention and control by the risk factors of pig epidemic introduction into a pig farm analysis in accordance with the results of the assessment. The entire study is divided into four parts:First, A scale model of the disease introduction into the pig farm and a mathematical model was developed with the animal health risk analysis technology. Then a manage way was proposed to reduce the risk of the occurrence of the disease; In order to make sure of the result can be trusted, an example was simulated. All the results mean:If the data and information was full, the accurate possibility of risk can be made by the quantitative risk assessment method.Second, Based on experimentations and applied the analytic hierarchy process the index system of external risk factors on large-scale farm is devided into large level, accuracy level and index level. Data statistics and results are obtained with Excel software, editing hierarchical structure models, the judgement matrix of various hierarch and consistency testing are built up. The result show that farm management practices, Biosecurity and site are major risk factors. Followed by establishment of Ⅰ level and Ⅱ level evaluation index weighing, a corresponding model of the whole index system is built.Third, In order to avoid data collection completeness and lack of timeliness of quantitative risk analysis in epidemic into large-scale farm, Fuzzy_comprehensive evaluation method and AHP method was combined to establish the model of fuzzy comprehensive evaluation; Then the risk level of the incoming of a pig epidemic was assessed by the semi-quantitative method, ultimately, the farm risk level was proved3, a moderate risk, and the bigger risk factor was bio-safety management factors。 Risk management can be easy carried out by the most sensitive risk factors pointed out through the above steps which was proved by this study.Fourth, The risk factors of pig farm was evaluated according to fuzzy comprehensive evaluation results, and the reason of risks was identified; For the higher risk of bio-safety management factors in the rule layer factors of the assessment result was obtained, The analysis of bio-safety management factors was focused on. Not only management of feces and dead pigs and the pig-bed facility, the most sensitive factors in the bio-safety management factors was got by this study, The pig farm managers was also helped with risk management approach proposed through this study.