On The Development Strategy Of Advanced Stage Of Agricultural Mechanization Of China

The development strategy of agricultural mechanization is an important subject ofagricultural mechanization management. Now China has stepped into the intermediate stageand is striding forward the advanced stage of agricultural mechanization development. In thissituation, combining the experience of agricultural mechanization of the industrializedcountries as a source of reference with China’s reality, this study investigated the developmentlaw, development target and development strategy of advanced stage of agriculturalmechanization for providing the management authority of agricultural mechanization with thetheoretical reference. The major conclusions are as follows:(1) Econometric co-integration and Granger causality test were used to explore therelationship between agricultural mechanization and rural economy of China, which is a newvision. The result shows the growth rate of rural economy is0.431463%when every increaseof1%of agricultural machinery total power (AMTP), and there is a unidirectional causalityrunning from AMTP to rural economy indicating that agricultural mechanization indeedprompted the development of rural economy.(2) This study analyzed the current situation and problems of agricultural mechanizationof China and the character of agricultural mechanization of typical developed countries suchas USA, Japan and France, and gained the six item of experience China could benefit from,for instance,“develop agricultural equipments based on the reality of China”,“conduct thefavorable fiscal policy of agricultural mechanization”, etc.(3) Several mathematical models were applied to forecast the objectives of agriculturalmechanization development in advanced stage. First of all, AMTP was predicted usingDiscrete Grey Model, which result indicated there is always a rise of AMTP in2012-2020,and in the advanced stage of agricultural mechanization AMTP would rise to168420.4×10~4kW with an annual growth rate of6.204%. Secondly, Linear Regression Modelwas employed for the equipment level of agricultural machinery, which predicted resultshowed that the amount of the large-and middle-size tractors, small-size tractors, matchingmachines with large-and middle-size tractors and matching machines with small-size tractorsis750.0×10~4,2342.1×10~4,1139.7×10~4and4237.6×10~4in2020respectively, and the annualgrowth rate is respectively6.09%、2.90%、5.58%and3.68%in2020. Lastly, secondaryexponential smoothing model was used to forecast the levels of tillage, sowing and harvest, which result revealed that in2020the tillage level, sowing level and harvest level is93.47%,62.57%and55.31%, respectively. The comprehensive level of agricultural machine operationis72.8%, and the annual growth rate is3.02%.(4) Four strategic measures were proposed aiming to resolve the problem of advancedstage of agricultural mechanization. They are respectively:1) five suggestions about how topromte the industry of agricultural machinery;2) six suggestions about how to promote thetechnology innovation of agricultural mechanization;3) eight suggestions about how toimprove the professional training system;4) four suggestions about how to reinforcepolicy-oriented mechanism of agricultural mechanization.