Optimal Timetable Research Based On Passengers Arrival Rate

Compared to the rapid economic development, the current development of China’s urban public transport is still lagging behind. Urban public transport problems include inadequate bus service capabilities, extensive mode of development, lower quality of service is very prominent. Problems facing urban public transport have to be settled urgently. It is not only need the policy support, but also enhance the level of service by bus companies themselves, to enhance bus travel sharing ratio. The most fundamental measure to enhance bus travel sharing ratio is High-quality transit service. As the core business of bus companies in the daily operating-the bus schedule is the most important factor in determining the quality of service of public transport.Only scheduled intervals during certain interval are achieved by most of domestic and foreign researchers. And the influence to the transit passenger flow is not taking into account in previous studies. According to insufficient of these studies, the paper propose schedule optimization based on passenger arrival rate and research achievements of domestic and foreign scholars to bus schedule.Aiming to get well-established timetable, firstly, paper handle the data of IC cards with filter. With cubic spline interpolation method, paper achieve passenger arrival rate in each one bus station. With bus speed being constant, passenger arrival rate of all the stations are changing into the whole line’s passenger arrival rate. And then, by the idea of ordered sample, quadratic optimal segmentation is used to achieve optimal partition in scheduling period and the number of partition.Based on function of passengers arriving rate, in order to optimize the bus timetable, paper presents a two-step solution ideas:(1) Paper let the minimization of the integrated cost of bus passengers and corporate to be the objective function. With knowledge of operations analysis, paper gets the optimal number of bus in certain scheduling period.(2) According to the influence of time table to rate of the passengers’arrival and the optimal number of bus, strategies of timetable is developed in two situations:passenger arrival rate in line with the uniform distribution and passenger arrival rate in line with the non-uniform distribution.In the end, combined with paper’s bus scheduling method, paper proposed the thinking of construction of bus intelligent scheduling systems. And paper also made a rough design for system function, framework and function modules.