Studies To Optimization For High-speed Train Plan Based On Analysis Of Passengers

In the field of transport, the rail transport has been dominant because of its large volume, long transport distance and other characteristics in transport. However, as people’s increasing requirements in the travel, with the impact of aviation transport and road transport, the share of rail transport market declined. People not only consider the price factor, but increase emphasis on comfort, travel time and other factors. Therefore, it also brings the revolutionary development of rail transport-high-speed passenger rail line. More and more Research on high-speed rail passenger line appeared, the researches involved in passenger distribution, optimization ideas, optimization model, travel choice behavior, and so on.Based on existing research, the thesis regard the high-speed rail passenger line as the research object.The first, analyze the internal and external impact factors of high-speed rail passengers, make sure the high-speed rail passenger market characteristics. Clearly the impact of macroeconomic factors on traffic through statistical analysis of macroeconomic data, noting the potential huge traffic market.Through the travel consumer behavior analysis, founding that high-speed rail service objects significant gaps in travel choice behavior. According to the high-speed rail passenger seating, the consumer is divided into two groups behaviors. Using the relevant degree analysis of gray theory, qualitative and quantitative analysis to identify sensitive factors of different consumer groups for the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail. Sort the calculated correlation, identified the three indicators of the general travel cost functions by the association. Laying a theoretical foundation for the introduction of the generalized cost optimization model and making basis and reference for high-speed rail operations department through the study.Secondly, predicting the traffic trends can help the high-speed rail operations department to deal with the changes ahead, reasonable arrangements for transportation can make full use of transport capacity, while improving customer satisfaction. Therefore, this paper use gray prediction model for the Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail105operating range to forecasts. The result showed that the model has high accuracy, distinguish it from the total passenger flow forecast, enabling operators to manage more lean. The result provides a premise for reasonable assurance program.Finally, after the front two basic work,the paper introduced the sensitive factor to general passenger travel cost function, establishd elasticity of demand function to improve fixed demand function model, analysis to calculated the function weighting for each target. Using the actual and forecast data of the first seven station of Wuhan-Guangzhou high-speed rail to solve the model. The results showed that the departments need to change the program in response to passenger traffic growth, fully prepared ahead. Elasticity of demand function based on generalized cost help department to provide the appropriate level of service to keeping expect level of traffic.