Study On The Cargo Transportation Demand Analysis And Forecast Of The Middle Reaches Of The Yangtze River

Inland waterway transport also plays an important role in the transport of goods in the world. China contributes approximately70per centor some690million tons of freight of volume per year. With an inland waterway system comprising more than5600nabigable rivers and a total navigable length of119000km, and200inland ports, China has the most highly developed inland waterways transport subsector in Asia. And Yangtze River is the golden river in China. As the most important river linking eastern and western economic development of China, the Yangtze River is the large transportation passage for the logistics and export-oriented economy along Yangtze River economiczone and plays a significant role in regional economic and social development. With the implementation of the Great Development of the Middle Area Rise Strategy and gradient transfer of industries, provinces and cities along the middle reaches of Yangtze River speed up the pace of develop. Agricultural products, metallurgical, petrochemical, automobile and building materials industries belt has been formed in the middle reaches of the Yangtze river. In2011, the hinterland of middle reaches of Yangtze River covers35%of the land,32%of the populationalong along Yangtze River, but complete30%of the GDP,25%of theutilization of foreign capital. At present, the demand analysis of the Yangtze River, mainly concentrated in the Yangtze River trunk line and downstream sectors, literature in view of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River segment needs analysis is still limited. Analysis of waterway shipping planning demand of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, help to the planning of Yangtze River and link the middle reaches with downstream transport interface.This paper uses regression model, exponential smoothing model, grey system model, and combination forecast model based on information entropy and modified with Markov Chain method, to predict the waterway freight volume and port throughput according to the characteristics of the main kinds of goods and the major ports in the middle reaches of Yangtze River. Chapter2defines the concept of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River waterway freight demand and analyzes the factors of influence. Chapter3is the analysis of the current situation of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River both in economic aspect and freight transportation aspect and gives a forcasting of the main influencing factors. Chapter4introduces the ideas and methods of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River waterway freight demand forecasting, and proposes the forecasting model. Chapter5, according to the forecast model and method, using the combination forecast model based on information entropy and Markov Chain method, predicts several major cargo freight volumes of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River, at the same time, predicts cargo throughput of main cargos of the three major ports. At last, the author put forward some advices to promote the development of the middle reaches of the Yangtze River.