The Study Of Urban Taxi Quantity Control Policy

No public management and policy has received more praise and abuse than the urban taxi quantity control policy, which has been one of the most popular topics for the media, the most controversial reform issues for the citizens, and the thorniest problems for the authority. The research into the capacity regulation of the urban taxi quantity control with theories such as industrial organization, tragedy of the commons, game theory, neural network algorithm and so on, would provide important insights into the policy formulation of taxi industry. The main issues of the study listed below.●By combing the evolution of Beijing taxi industry in the past three decades, we summarized the four development stages and the vital role, which the policy and capital played in the development process.●Based on the taxi cruising market characteristics, we established a game theory model, and researched the operation game strategies for the monopoly, duopoly and oligopoly, which demonstrated that this market was in consistent with the rent dissipation theory, the quantity control was a choice.●Descripted the factors, processes and plan content of the taxi quantity adjustment. Revised the taxi quantity regulation impacts from three dimensions, and established Autoregressive model, Logistic model and Neural network model for taxi quantity regulation.●With the filtered data, we made a case study for taxi quantity regulation, and we came to a conclusion about the applicability of the models. Finally, we predicted the taxi quantities in the future.●Taking the existing problems of urban taxi quantity regulation into consideration, we proposed two measures, shortening the cycle regulatory to adjust the taxi number dynamically and deregulating the For-Hire Vehicle Market with the new technologies.