The Research About The Intercity Bus Fares Based On SD Model

Abstract:With the development of economic, numbers of cities gradually formed urban cluster. Urban cluster is the highest form of urban development to the spatial organization of the mature stage, a number of cities in the region are concentrated in large urban agglomeration and made a huge, multi-core, multi-level city Group. It’s a metropolitan area. With the development of urban cluster, coordination between several cities, bringing closer exchanges between cities, resulting in the generation of intercity bus. Intercity bus transportation service to the community has become a new way and trend for residents to travel and to promote economic development.Ticket is an important factor affecting intercity bus’s operation, develop a reasonable level of fares for intercity buses has a very important function for long-term stable development.In addition, intercity bus has features of nonprofit and low fares, to maintain the normal operation of the bus company, the government needs to offer certain subsidies. According to the existing intercity bus lines, due to lack of government’s subsidies, many of the bus company cannot operate normally. This paper analyzed various scholars domestic and abroad in recent years on the development of urban public transport fares, long-distance passenger fares and basic aspects of the development of public transport costs and government subsidies, combined with the actual situation of intercity bus, through adjusting the enterprise fares to realize the sharing rate of intercity bus gradually, and to achieve bus priority goals. In this paper, we estimate the distribution rate according to the contribution rate of three traffic ways:intercity buses, long-distance and high-speed rail, and combine with the Logit model, it comes to the conclusions that with the lower intercity bus fares, intercity bus can achieve the higher contribution rate. we build the system dynamics model about intercity bus fare and subsidies, and simulate intercity bus of a new build urban agglomerations by using the Vensim software. The model was verified by means of dimensional consistency test, run test. According to dynamics system, by simulating examples with scenario analysis, we designed three different enterprise fares:0.5,0.4,0.3yuan per person-kilometers. Under the three scenarios, combining with supply and demand, comparing the supply and demand volume of intercity bus traffic, it can determine the intercity bus fare rate setting, and then get government subsidies fare rate, it can also provide the basis for determining intercity bus fares and the amount of government subsidies.This paper provides a new approach and idea of fare and subsidy program formulation for intercity bus, and a basis for decision making for the relevant government departments and public transport enterprises to make the bus company’s normal operations and ensure a more rapid development of urban agglomerations.