Study On The Uncertainty Of Fire Personnel Escape Of Highway Tunnel

With increase of the number and length of highway tunnel, the design conceptsconstantly updated, put forward the higher request to tunnel operation management and fireevacuation and rescue. Therefore, the scholars paid highly attention to the problem of tunnelfire personnel safety escape. However，the existing fire evacuation model ignoring the firedetection time, personnel evacuation speed, tunnel geometric characteristic, wind speed andother factors of uncertainty when calculate the required safety egress time and available safetyegress time, existence of discrepancies with actual situation. In this paper using the event treemethod analysis the possible fire scenarios, combined with fire safety escape determinationconditions and Monte Carlo method, analysis the uncertainty during the highway tunnel fireevacuation process.（1）The paper summarizes the various uncertainties during the highway tunnel fireevacuation process, divided uncertainties into four types: traffic uncertainty, fire scenariodesign uncertainty, tunnel fire prevention facilities uncertainty and staff behavior uncertainty.（2）Introduced several analysis methods for uncertainty, on this basis, choose the MonteCarlo method as the main analysis method in this paper.（3）Fire safety escape determination conditions were given based on the analysis ofevacuation guidelines and fire hazards. Calculation formula of fire smoke temperature and theconcentration of harmful gas were given.（4）Establish the uncertainty analysis method based on Monte Carlo simulation andevent tree. Calculate the uncertainty index and probability description (probability densityfunction and cumulative probability distribution function) of each uncertainty factor.（5）Combine with an engineering project, analysis the uncertain parameters duringhighway tunnel fire evacuation, obtain the probability description of fire detection time, firefighting, required safety egress time and available safety egress time.