Study On Hydrological Forecasting And Its Optimal Scheduling

Hydropower runoff forecasting and scheduling is an important part of improving thelevel of economic operation of hydropower station, the runoff forecast depends on theselection of watershed case, historical data and forecast models, forecast accuracy hasimportant implications for reservoir operation and other decision-making.This paper attempts to use stochastic hydrology model in forecasting Lancang Riverhydropower runoff, including two hydropower lack of historical runoff data is calculatedby reference to the reservoir. For the detection of forecast accuracy compared to theforecast value and the actual data, higher forecast accuracy of the data, design reservoirscheduling policy, the maximum generating capacity of the objective function for thehydropower. Four reservoirs successive monthly cycle scheduling, the rest of the reservoiris determined according to the principle of equivalent proportion water storage schedulingscheme. Water scheduling program to verify equivalent proportion conventionalscheduling policy and the strategy of the equivalent proportion, the reservoir measuredrunoff data were calculated, comparing its effective value.Example indicates, improve the runoff forecasting accuracy and the equivalentproportion scheduling policy can improve hydropower economic efficiency, in order toverify the feasibility of the the equivalent proportion scheduling policy.