Research Of Solar Photovoltaic Power Generation Prediction Technology In Tianjin

With the increasingly prominent energy and environmental problems, solar energy as a kind of non-pollution and renewable clean energy, had gradually aroused extensive concern of the international community by its development and utilization. Solar photovoltaic power generation is one of the main methods of solar energy resources utilization, and accurate output prediction is very important to reasonable and efficient use of solar energy resources. And photovoltaic power generation prediction must be based on the solar radiation prediction, mainly aimed at predicting the future short-term changes of solar radiation. Based on the solar radiation and meteorological data from1961-2010, the characteristics of solar radiation and radiation budget and the relationship with meteorological factors were analyzed. Using the total radiation data from2000-2009of national meteorological information center, the solar energy resources for photovoltaic (PV) grid power station was evaluated. By the TJ-WRF mesoscale numerical models forecast products, the relevant forecast factors was extracted, the ground solar radiation prediction equation was established. Combined with the photoelectric conversion efficiency model, the quantitative relationship between ground solar radiation and power generation was established. Main research results were as follows:(1) Due to anthropogenic aerosol emissions, ground solar radiation from1961to1990presented the downward trend。 since the1990s, the ground solar radiation changes tend to be gentle; from September2010-August2011, the ground solar radiation reached of152W/m2’ ground solar radiation reflected of29.45W/m2Because of greenhouse gases and cloud in the atmosphere, atmospheric counter radiation for371W/m2, out of the ground sensible heat34.3W/m2, latent heat of29.2W/m2, ground long-wave radiation of432W/m2, the surface energy balance approximate to zero. Sunshine hours and ground radiation significantly correlated.(2) In recent10years, the highest peak sunshine hours was in May and June, belonged to very suitable for grid-connected power generation level; April and July, belonged to the suitable for grid-connected power generation level; March、August and September was little suitable degree for grid-connected power generation. There were7months throughout the year could be used for grid-connected power generation.(3) The ground solar radiation in different seasons was affected by different factors, TJ-WRF had a certain ability to simulate the solar radiation, the correlation coefficient of predicted value and measured value was better; the forecast accuracy of Cloud cover and the lack of aerosol concentration were main reasons of the model error; the correction effect by establishing the correlation between the difference between simulation value and measured value of solar radiation and the simulation of meteorological elements is the best, the forecast precision of the model was significantly improved.(4) Solar radiation after MOS corrections was more accurate and reliable than the WRF model. The final formation of the intensification of air temperature, ground solar radiation prediction and standardized guidance of photovoltaic forecast could provide necessary technical support and services for the area of solar energy photovoltaic power generation.