Research On Optimal Allocation And Security Threshold Of Water Resources In Tianjin

Water resources are the basic natural resources, the key element of ecology, and a part of comprehensive national power. Water resources security is linked with the lifeline of human, people’s livelihood, social development, national prosperity and decline. At present, water crisis is becoming more and more serious in our country, especially in Tianjin, water resources per capita is only160m3which is far below the world average level that the world-recognized warning line is at1000m3per capita. So water shortage is a serious problem in Tianjin. In order to solve the problem, the comprehensive, coordinated and sustainable scientific development requirements should be based on, judgment analysis on optimal allocation and water safety threshold value. So research on optimal allocation and security threshold of water resources in Tianjin has certain theoretical significance and practical value.As we know, the connotation of water resources security is mainly safety of water volume and safety of water quality. At the same time, optimal allocation of water resources is working with the distribution of the water volume with the quality requirements. So we can take the problem of water resources optimal allocation and the problem of water resources system security research combined. After the optimal allocation of regional water resources,the results of water volume and water quality can be get,which can be based on for water system safety research.First of all, the regional water resources optimal allocation model is established, which is based on water volume and water quality.The model take the maximization of economic, social, ecological environment benefit as the goal,and the water supply and the water demand as constraints. With the help of the system overall optimization genetic algorithm and the risk decision analysis software—"The DecisionTools Suite (5.5Industrial)" Evolver plug-in, the model is solved. Then Tianjin is set as an example,after works of division of water resources area, the determine of water supply and consumer, we obtained the satisfactory results from the optimal allocation.Secondly, combined with variables of cusp catastrophe theory model’s characteristics, a water system safety discriminant model is established. The synergistic evaluation between water resources and social economy is selected as the state variable, and the comprehensive index of water volume and water quality indicators as controlled variables.Then the cusp catastrophic model is established and fitting.A fter certain correlation processing to the water resources index of Tianjin, the fitting effect of a single index model and comprehensive index model is compared and analysis. TheTianjin water resources safety threshold is determine by the curve of mutation discriminantvalue of△.And the corresponding countermeasures of water resources security management is put forward from two aspects of increase income and reduce expenditure.