Research On Typical Industrial Town Of Load Characteristics And Prediction Under The New Economic Situation

Gradually formed in the electricity market environment, power load forecasting plays a more and more important role in power system planning and operation of power system, the prediction accuracy is more and more important.This paper takes the Yangtze River Delta is a typical industrial town as a sample, the load in2009"1025" planning in the prediction of a check, found that the prediction of a larger deviation. Through the analysis, to determine the new situation of social economic development is the main reason of load forecast error, single forecasting method used is a secondary cause deviation.On this basis, put forward innovative stage compared growth economic and social development and power load, the two are divided into fluctuation period of rapid growth in the period before2008and after, to explore the different laws of development and the positive and negative correlation, and then starting from the economic factors, seeks the modern industrial economy and the relationship between load characteristics, and explore the ways to improve the accuracy of load forecasting.Through the comparison of quantitative association, time span and industry to the economic growth and the power load span load characteristics and economic situation, put forward to solve the economic situation under the new method of load forecast:phase analysis and comprehensive prediction method, for short-and long-term power load forecasting work to provide the beneficial reference.Research shows that, through the macroeconomic situation, the city itself industrial structure characteristics, in-depth analysis of power demand, especially the development of industrial load characteristics under the new economic situation, combined with the industrial structure adjustment, residential load, temperature, price and other factors, the comprehensive prediction and analysis for load forecasting is a kind of method is the utility, prediction, the load of a district power network economic situation and power load, power market research has a certain reference value.