Study On The Theory Of Carrying Capacity And Reliability Of Railway Networks

Railway transportation has been the backbone of integrated transportation in China,which plays an important role in promoting economic development and construction all overthe country. At present, railway construction in our country is developing rapidly. Nationalinvestment in railway construction is increasing by years, and the scale and speed rank in thefront of the world. With constant perfection of railway network in China and implementationof transformation on electrification and high-speed on existed lines, national railway networkscale revenue kilometers has reached100,000kilometers all around the country in2012. Withrapid development in economy, improvement on people’s life, continuous acceleration onrailway construction progress and gradually increase in transportationdemand, people’s needson travel quality has greatly improved consequently. Though railway in China is developingrapidly, it is still hard to meets the increasing needs on social transportation. This reflectsinadequate research on railway network planning in our country, and we lack scientific andeffective evaluation on understanding of utilization status of integrated or regional railwaynetworks. So, theoretical research of railway network planning could not catch up withrailway construction development. Therefore, in future development of railway transportation,how to improve the efficiency of railway construction and operation, problems on railwaytransportation planning and evaluation on reliability of railway network transport capacitywill become important research topics.This article starts from concept of traditional railway transportation capacity, analyzesdefects of traditional concept on actual evaluation of railway network, betters the concept ofrailway transportation capacity, carries out characteristic analysis on its concept systems andpoints out its actual meanings for further research on problems of railway network systemtransportation capacity. To deeper understand contents of transportation network reliability bycombination of three indicators of road network reliability, and gives out concept that issuitable for evaluating the reliability of transportation capacity of railway network system aswell as evaluation indicator. On the premise of considering railway real operation, torepresent the impact of random factors in the concept of reliability of transportation capacityof railway network system, and gives out calculation formula. According to analysis of thesetheories, certainty and uncertainty of traffic distribution models based on the K short circuitare established on the basis of being influenced by random factors in real operation, and getsthe result by calculating with genetic algorithm. According to research of this article,reasonable evaluation is made on railway network transportation capacity and its reliability,and finally calculates separately the railway network transportation capacity of certainty anduncertainty of traffic distribution models with combination of cases, and then gets the transportation capacity and its reliability of related K degree road network system. Bycomprehensively comparing data and making evaluation on road network accordingly, andfurther understanding utilization status of road network, this article provides theoreticalfoundation for future transportation planning and management of railway network.