Study On Evalution Methodolody Of Early-warning Of Heating System

No matter how well the design, construction and management are running, therewill always be an accident in heating systems, which is difficult to avoid. So it isnecessary to develop a feasible and effective early warning system, which can sendwarning signals before the accident, to prevent the accident in advance. According tothe external performance and internal causes of the accident, the early warning systemcan give coping strategies to prevent large-scale accidents, especially gradient accidents.As the supplement and consummation to the heating system reliability, early warningsystem can evaluate the heating system.First of all, the establishment of early warning systems of the heating system needto collate and analyze heating accidents in order to determine characteristics of theaccident, larger influencing factors, external performance and frequency of theaccident，which can provide basic information and basis of early warning. Furthermorethe theoretical concepts of early warning should be combined with the accident theoryof heating systems, to integrate theoretical knowledge of early warning which is suitablefor heating systems. The theoretical knowledge of early warning of heating systemscontains the concepts, features, functionality and content of early warning, and containshow to divide the warning interval, to determine the threshold value and processing ofwarning signals etc.This paper mainly establishes the evaluation index system of early warningsystems of heating accident, and determines appropriate evaluation method. Theevaluation index system of early warning systems of heating accident is divided to threeparts: the boiler subsystem, the thermal station subsystem and the thermal networksubsystem. Since accidents in thermal network has higher frequency of occurrence andinvolve more elements, this paper focuses on the analysis of the rmal network subsystem.The index system of early warning systems of heating systems makes evaluation andresearch from four parts: the participants, environment, equipment and management.While it determines the threshold by half of principles in the management. Then itdetermines the weight that index layer relative to target layer by the way of AHP. At thesame time，it use the fuzzy evaluation method to make evaluation process have afurther improve， which weakens the influence because of the understandingdifferences from a person to another.