Forecasting Research Of Yongcheng Electric Power Load Based On Grey Model

Electricity load forecasting is an important aspect of modern management of power system. Accurate forecasting can here provide basis for making development and operational plans, and therefore, reach the goal of reducing generating cost, using funds effectively and increasing economic and social effectively at the same time. With the development of national economy, power industry has also entered into a crucial period of development, scientific planning of money and grid construction for higher output and efficiency has become critical issue for the development of power industry. And scientific planning, in turn, relies heavily on accurate forecasting, which is the foundation for system dispatching and power projecting.In this paper, the author forecast the electricity load of Yongcheng city using Grey Forecasting model and model analysis on the forecasting results. The paper makes analysis on Grey Forecasting model from model building, data collection, model test to model improvement. then focuses on the supplies, load, source and distribution of Yongcheng city, Finally, the Grey Model is used to forecast electricity consumption, power supply and the maximum load of Yongcheng city from2010-2015. The forecasting result of this paper indicates that the electricity demand and maximum load of Yongcheng are growing very fast, leaving a wide gap between supply and demand. To cope with this situation, Yongcheng city is expected to enhance supply capacity through scientific planning and investment.