| Eco-system is the basic unit of the biosphere and it plays an important role in thelife-support system and the dynamic equilibrium of the environment. It is oftendifficult to predict in the future because it is an adaptive systems with multiplesteady-state mechanism. Scenario analysis is to design a process which is a set ofcognitive, rational and imaginative, alternative scenarios of the future. Many studiesproved that its core ideas have efficacy against the system uncertainty and expandideas.This research select "reduce reservoir sediment deposited", and "reduce waterenvironment surface source pollution" and "ecological system produced water" andchoose the changes of cover pattern as motivation. Then it analysis the complexassociated deeply of related ecological process and the service of conservation, usingthe ArcGIS of space analysis tools, building three assessment model of ecologicalsystem service objects quality and value volume based on pattern and process. Basedon it,it research the service and value which ecological system reduce downstreamsediment and surface source pollution and supply downstream water resources onfuture may of various land cover pattern of response. It still balance the change ofupstream area’s various industry proceeds in corresponding land cover and measuredifferent service benefits. Considering the related party well-being, It give theprotection countermeasures of water resources and ecological environmental.,From the study, we know that Xinan jiang upstream soil conservation totaled138.0×106t a-1in2010and the conservation ability of woodland soil is strongest;Simulated actual output volume of sediment is50.4×104t a-1and farmland is themost important source of sediment. the total economic services value of reducing thesedimentation reaches2.13million yuan; total phosphorus of upstream to downstreamoutput reaches294.99t. the farmland and the land for construction was the most majorphosphorus sources of Xinanjiang upstream and the total value of basins for reducingits exports by receiving service phosphorus non-point source pollution is6.3401million yuan. The simulated actual quantity of water supplied to downstream is71.8×108m3a-1and The total economic value of water resource reaches3.02billionyuan; forest grass buffer is efficacious in reducing the silt and dirty; Storie4and5have pro effect in the3optimal indicators of transporting sand and transporting phosphorus and providing water resource and the integrated benefits is the bestalthough the economic output is relative lower... |
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