Scenario Simulation And Evaluation For Dafeng Coastal Wetland Conservation And Development Based On Ecological Niche And Public Participation

The wetland is a unique ecosystem of the earth that has powerful resource supply capacity and ecological functions, so it is known as the "kidney of the earth". Dafeng coastal wetland which called "silt-long coastal zone" is an important part of the Yancheng coastal wetland that reliable land reserve resources for Yancheng and even Jiangsu Province; In this region, there have two national nature reserves where is the world’s third largest elk population places and the world’s main wintering grounds for the red-crowned crane that is extremely important ecological conservation value. But with the economic development of accelerated and people irrational development and utilization of wetland resources has led to the destruction of the ecosystem balance, so how to coordinate the contradictions of wetland resource protection and development that is becoming a issue need solved urgently. So it has very important theoretical significance and practical significance to balance the needs of development and utilization and ecological protection requirements, following coastal wetlands own succession characteristics and laws, exploring moderate and reasonable utilization plan.On the basis of learning and summarize of research at home and abroad and niche theory, coupled public participation in planning decisions suggestions, use scenario analysis method to design and simulation future use programs of Dafeng coastal wetland. Use the niche theory to establish wetland ecological and economic functions and niche suitability index evaluation model to evaluate the ecological functions and industrial suitability of Dafeng coastal wetland; To discuss utilization status quo of Dafeng coastal wetland, industrial suitability and the property location of protection region or development region. Combine the use of questionnaires collected public decision-making recommendations on the protection or development and the use of scenario analysis method to simulation three utilization plans which are based on the different planning position and different target(Maintain status scene land use plan, Vigorously develop scene land use plan, Turn around protection scene land use plan), then optimize a land use programs from the three preferred options, finally get a land use plan that can better to achieve the both sides of conservation and development. The papers main conclusions are as follows:(1)During the years of ecological and economic functions evaluation of wetlands, large-scale region of original protection and development of the transition zone had occurred the ecological function changed to the economic function and presents the characteristics of "The rolling development mode" constantly eastward. According to the evaluation results of the state, potential, bit, the study area is distinguished divided into different properties or the extent of the protection and development of the area: key protected area, conservation priority area, moderate development and utilization area, comprehensive development and utilization area.(2) The results of the evaluation of the industrial suitability: agriculture and aquaculture in the study area has a higher degree of suitability with broader suitable range, ideally suited to carry out; Salt industries due to natural conditions, has a low level of suitability and a low level of vitality for development; The eco-tourism industry to benefit from the rich tourism resources in the study area, showing the huge potential for development.(3)The Public have more points of view for Dafeng coastal wetland planning future location. On the basis of the status quo, the Public think that should eliminate some of the low economic efficiency of industrial type. When do protect the decision-making by the public, they will be starting from the perspective of ecological benefits and priority conservation or restore ecological functions powerful landscape unit, priority selection greater use types of environmental pollution to ecological reconstruction. When do development and utilization the decision-making by the public, they will exhibit purely profit-driven, and more from the economic point of view. They first select the original landscape unit developed into the highly cost effective of the use of land class. In the choice of the spatial region where is specific implementation of protection and development decisions, the point of view of the public once again confirms the obvious contradiction between protection and development in the study area, originally belonged to the protection and development of the transition zone of the region is first option to protectors and developers.(4)On the basis of niche theory evaluation and public participation in decision-making advice, after program construction and scenario analysis and preferred optimization, finally get the land use plan that can provide wetland benefits of1.088billion, agricultural development effectiveness of875million and net benefit of368million. Compared with2009, this land use plan which can coordinate the contradictions of protection and development has improved various efficiency indicators except environmental costs. The context of the entire course of the study and compared the status quo utilization, this study suggests that the effective limit development intensity, compatible with wetland ecosystems, natural succession laws is the key to coordinate the contradiction between protection and development. Strictly implement the appropriate measures is the core to coordinate the contradiction between protection and development.