Application Of Evidence Theory In Fault Tree Uncertainty Processing

Wood processing plays an important role in the industry, agriculture and the needs ofpeople’s living. There will be a large number of MDF factory established in China every year.However, suffered serious losses due to fire are increasing with the emergence of a large numberof production lines. It’s prone to fire that material handling equipment encounters spark in themain MDF production line, and it’s difficult to extinguish the fire when the explosivecombustion of wood fiber spread fast. Fault tree analysis model is widely used in various fieldaccident evaluations and especially in the fire accident analysis. The specific structure of faulttree can effectively monitor and evaluate the scene of the fire with the gradually refined in a treestructure. Nevertheless, the occurrence of fire accidents had being uncertain due to the form,environment, fuel and distribution. Traditional fault tree analysis is restricted by the factors thatit is difficult to expressing the uncertainties of the cause in the fire.The evidence theory and Bayesian approximation method will be used to deal withuncertain information and to integrate diagnosis from different domain experts in the stage offault tree quantitative analysis. The method in this paper is applied to the MDF production linefire policy in Anhui Dongsheng Wood Co., Ltd, the capacity of the system fire protection hadbeen enhanced successfully with the proposing of more scientific and efficient fire safety systemand safety procedure.A summary has been made at the end of this article and priority has been put forward for thefuture research direction. The space where could be improved in fault tree has been pointed out,and the necessity of evidence theory in-depth study has been proposed as well. Finally, theresearch prospects in combination of FTA and evidence theory has been proposed.