A Study On Household Energy Consumption And Carbon Emissions Of Tai Yuan City

Low-carbon city has become the hot topic of low carbon economy to deal with the challenge ofglobal climate change. Carbon emissions of household energy consumption rise along with thedevelopment of Chinese social economy and urbanization, the growth of population and the improvementof residents’ living standard. It showed that household has become the major terminal consumption units inthe various economic activities and the level of carbon emissions has affected the process of low-carboncity profoundly. The current level of city’s carbon emissions should be estimated accurately and objectivelyin order to carry out our promise of reducing carbon emissions, which being put forward in the Copenhagenconference, and made a feasible plan of carbon reduction. But most researches of urban carbon emissionsfocus on the national scale, less research were carried out at the microscopic household level. The object ofthis study is to estimate, analyze and forecast the households’ carbon emissions from energy consumptionin Taiyuan city, which based on the theory of sustainable development and the theory of low-carboneconomy. Through combining qualitative description with quantitative analysis and macro estimation withmicro questionnaire, we are seeking for a new method to reduce carbon emission from household energyusing, which also promote the development of urban as a poicy support.After reviewed on those researches which related to household energy consumption and carbonemissions, we established a model to estimate the carbon emissions from household energy consumption.The change of households carbon emissions level and structure for ten years was analyzed with charts onthe basis of the results form the calculating model, which using statistical data from2001to2010inTaiyuan city. The driving factors which lead to the change of household energy consumption and carbonemissions during2002to2010were analyzed through the factor decomposition model. The microcosmicstudy model which in the form of questionnaires has divided the whole city into six partitions, and it hasused the descriptive statistics method to analysis the investigation data with the aid of SPSS software. Afterthat, forecast the household energy consumption and carbon emissions of Taiyuan for the next2-5yearswith the scenario analysis method, and then put forward right countermeasures which adapt to the reductionof carbon emissions. The main conclusions are as follows: Firstly, the trend of carbon emissions from household energy consumption increased first andthen decreased. In2001-2009, the total carbon emissions from household energy consumption rise withyears, on the contrary, compared to2009, the carbon emissions in2010decreased by7.4%. But there hasbeen a general uptrend in the household carbon emissions of Tai yuan city, in2010, which up228%from2001.Secondly, the consumption level of residents’ living and the consumption intensity of energy arethe dominant factor which caused the rising of household energy consumption. The trend of rising duringthe study period due to the positive effect (consumption level, energy consumption intensity and energystructure), which is greater than the reverse inhibition effect of family scale. From2002to2006, thehousehold consumption level, consumption intensity of energy, carbon emissions intensity from energy andfamily scale have positive effect on household carbon emissions, but household energy structure is aninhibitory factor. Family scale has transformed gradually into the inhibitory factor during the period of2007-2010. In contrast, household energy structure, consumption level and consumption intensity fromhousehold energy have become the positive factors.Thirdly, the household basic situation, the way of energy use and the cognition of low carbonwould be compared among the different partitions of Taiyuan city. The per capita carbon emissions in TaiYuan city also be compared with other cities. The living standard of Xinghualing and Yingze district ishigher than other districts. There is no obvious difference of ways to use energy, and the cognition level oflow carbon is generally low. The per capita carbon emissions of Taiyuan city was higher than that ofBeijing and Tianjin, and showed a steady upward trend.Fourthly, the scenario analysis method is used to predict the carbon emissions of baselinescenario and reference scenario. In2012, the carbon emission from energy consumption in Taiyuan city is3.5701million t, which has been forecasted under the reference scenario, and the value of referencescenario is3.1957million t; the carbon emission will reach4.4253million t in2015, and the value ofreference scenario is3.8919million t.Lastly, according to the estimation results, it put forward some corresponding measures whichwould reduce the household carbon emission from the follow four aspects: energy efficiency, energystructure, low-carbon building and low-carbon consumption.