Characteristics And Future Trend Analysis Of Climate Change For Nearly48Years In South China Areas

The present study analyzes the air temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature, relative humidity, rainfall, wind velocityand sunshine duration in the three provinces of South China from1961to2008with methods including linear regression analysis, correlation analysis, M-K method, wavelet analysis and R/S analysis. During the analysis, Firstly, the region is split into two subregions including subregion one and subregion two of Southern China with the Q-pattern hierarchical cluster analysis in SPSS. The main elements during the classification contain temperature and rainfall.It will be helpful to understand the characteristics of temporal change and special distribution of in Southern China and its two subregions and its specific respondence to the global warming. The main conclusions are as follows:(1) The characteristics of the climate elements’ distribution in the two subregions of Southern China are firstly briefed. in subregion one, all the meteorological elements distribute with the similar characteristics that the elements decrease from the coastal to inland area in all the four periods including the whole year, pre-rainy season, rainy season and post-rainy season; in subregion two, the special distribution of the average temperature,maximum temperature wind velocity and sunshine duration are similar to those in subregion one, but the relative humidity decreases from the east to west in all the period mentioded before. In all the four above mentioned periods, the maximum temperature increases from the north to the south, from the north and south sides to the middle, from the west to the east and from coastal to inland area In section two, the rainfall in the whole year and that in pre-flood season is decreased from east to west. In post-rainy season and rainy season, the rainfall is decreased from coastal to inland.(2) Linear regression analysis is also conducted. In subregion one, the warming rate of temperature, maximum temperature, minimum temperature and the reduce rate of wind speed is the highest in the whole year with rate of0.17℃/10a,0.14K/10a,0.22℃/10a,-0.053m/s/10a, respectively. The rate is lowest in post-rainy season with value of0.09℃/10a,0.06℃/10a,0.13℃/10a,-0.006m/s/10a respectively. The most rapid change of precipitation and sunshine. Duration occurs in post-rainy season with rate of26.5mm/10a and-81.3h/10a, and the slowest change occurs in the whole year with rate of18.1mm/10a,-46.7h/10. The fastest and slowest change of relative humidity is in the whole year with rate of-0.72%/10a and in the pre-rainy season with rate of-0.62%/10a, respectively. In subregion two, all the elements change with the same rate as in section one except relative humidity, whose change rate is opposite to that in subregion one. In the whole year, pre-rainy season, post-rainy season and rainy season, air temperature, maximum temperature and minimum temperature increase faster in subregion two than in subregion one, relative humidity and sunshine duration decreases faster, and wind speed decreases slower in subregion two than in subregion one. Comparing to subregion two, the rainfall increases slower in the whole year and in post-rainy season in subregion one, but faster in pre-rainy season and rainy season in subregion one.(3) Mutation analysis is then performed. In subregion one, the air temperature (1996and1992) and maximum temperature (1998and1999) in the whole year and rainy season mutated in1990s, but in subregion two, the mutation is in1980s. In all the four period and in both the two subregions, relative humidity and wind speed mutated around2000and in1970s respectively. The mutation of the sunshine duration takes place in late1970s in all the four periods (1975,1971,1980and1975)in subregion one, but in late1970s or early1990s in subregion two (not significant,1971,1994and1992).(4) Finally, the R/S and wavelet analysis is used. In both the two subregions, all the elements is highly sustainability in all the four periods,expect the rainfall in pre-rainy season, whose sustainability is weak (Hurst=0.49). However, the sustainability and main oscillation period of all elements differs from period to period and from element to element. The future trend of the elements predicted with R/S in both the two subregions is similar to the wavelet analysis.