Old-age Service System Strcuture Simulation Based On System Dynamics

In the face of an aging population, aging and the arrival of the empty nest, disability, agoal of “to build an old-age service system that based on home, relying on the communityand institutions to support” has been established in the “Social Old-age Service SystemConstruction Plan(2011-2015)” issued by the State Council in December2011.At present, Shanghai is committed to build a social old-age service pattern of “9073”,while Beijing is committed to build a “9064” social old-age service pattern. However,whether it is “9073” or “9064” are determined has yet to consider the situation of supplyand demand, set artificially restrict or exaggerate certain pension scale. Size of the socialold-age service system three parts should be carried out in the scale of the balance ofsupply and demand principle.From the analysis of the results and the research situation of domestic social old-ageservice system can be seen, scholars research more in one of the three components of thesocial old-age service system, focus on the subject, pattern, status analysis, empiricalanalysis based on the survey, etc. Very little research on old-age service system of thewhole society, and more focused on the investigation and the qualitative analysis. Thisstudy aims to build the social old-age service system by quantitative simulation method,mainly discusses the following aspects:(1)The definition of old-age service system and its related concepts. Take the“Planning” as the main reference guide, clear home care, community care, pensioninstitutions own connotation in social old-age service system, and make my own definitionof those concept that has been controversial in the current academic, this is the base ofbuilding the social old-age service system.(2)Research status of social service system for the aged. Through literature search anddata arrangement, analysis of the current situation of domestic and foreign social old-ageservice system, discuss the current development status and existing problems of home care, community care and pension institutions.(3)Modeling and Simulation of social old-age service system. On the basis of theliterature retrieval, determine the key factors that affects the system, On this basis, take theaged services security goal, the pension service mode and the aged services of investmentfunds as the frame structure to build a social old-age service system, and carrying on thesystem dynamics calculation from the supply and demand balance angle.(4)Analysis and Countermeasures of results. By constructing a system dynamicsmodel and simulation to get a conclusion, specific target model results with the realityresults to achieve a comparative analysis, on the basis of this, from the aspects of operationmechanism, management mode, financial mechanism construction etc. to put forwardcountermeasures and suggestions on construction of the social old-age service system.