Study On The Alternative Generation Method For Emergency Response Based On Fault Tree Analysis

Emergencies without correct and timely response measures usually bring a great deal of personnel casualty and property losing. So only select and implement the appropriate response alternative at the beginning of an emergency can minimize the loss. Decision makers seldom choose alternative schemes in the tranditional emergency response problems. Also, the scenario probability estimation result was usually gain directly or acquired through subjective evaluation. Such method may lead to an improper emergency alternative which will impact the emergency rescue effect. For that reason, it is necessary to study on the alternative generation problem for emergency response in which the scenario probability is uncertain and the response alternative is schemes and explore a new decision analysis method. This method can generate emergency alternative schemes timely and correctly in order to minimize the deaths and injuries and property loss.This paper deeply studied the alternative generation problem for emergency response based on the summary and analysis of emergency decision problem. The main work includes the following four aspects:(1) Proposed a kind of alternative generation problem for emergency response. Through the analysis of the real background of alternative generation problem for emergency response, this paper proposed a kind of alternative generation problem for emergency response in which the scenario probability is uncertain and the response alternative is schemes.(2) Proposed a method for estimating scenario probability by integrating the subjective information and objective information. Aim at the situation in which scenario probability is uncertain, this paper proposed a kind of probability estimate method by integrating the subjective information and objective information. Firstly, calculate the objective scenario probability of the basic event in fault tree. Furthermore, calculate the subjective scenario probability of the basic event in fault tree by integrating the evaluation information of experts. At last, confirm each scenario probability of the basic event in fault tree by integrating the subjective information and objective information.(3) Proposed a kind of alternative generation method for emergency response based on fault tree analysis. Aim at the alternative generation problem in which the response alternative is schemes, this paper proposed a kind of alternative generation method for emergency response based on fault tree analysis. Firstly, build the fault tree for emergency response problem based on fault tree theory. Furthermore, found emergency sub-alternatives set for each basic event. At last, build the optimize model, solve the optimize model and achieve the best emergency alternative schemes.(4) Showed the potential application of the proposed method. Take the emergency defense problem for the typhoon named Muifa in DL city as an example, this paper showed the application of the alternative generation method for emergency response based on fault tree theroy and proved that it is practical and reasonable.The alternative generation method for emergency response based on fault tree analysis provided referential method or approach for solving the emergency reponse problem. It laid a foundation for the related research. This method can help the decision maker choose the appropriate alternative schemes timely in order to minimize the loss. The proposed method can be used to solving practical emergency response problems such as typhoon defensive, fire rescue, disease control and so on.