Study Of Typhoon Hazard Analysis Methods Based On CE Wind Field Numerical Simulation

China’s southeastern coastal city, such as Shenzhen, Hong Kong, Shanghai andso on, suffered a higher frequency of tropical cyclones. The population wasconcentrated in these developed cities. The typhoon has greatly increased disastervulnerability and disaster chain susceptibility of the coastal cities and building,which made the tropical cyclone load become master load in the design of suchstructures. So wind hazard analysis was very important in typhoon-affected zone. InChina, the lack of high-quality observational typhoon data and insufficient datamade us not to apply statistical methods to analysis the typhoon hazard. Furtherimprovement and application of the U.S. Army Corps of Engineers (CE) typhoonwind field model, applied Monte Carlo numerical simulation to study of differentreturn period of extreme wind speed prediction and risk analysis in Shenzhen, HongKong and Shanghai encountered typhoon. Provided a reasonable basis for theengineering design of structural safety and risk assessment.According to further study of the physical structure of the typhoon and theconclusions from statistical analysis of a large number of accurate data on thetyphoon studied by the scholars in recent years, considering the impact oftemperature on the typhoon, and typhoon central pressure changes with altitude,research parameterized values of the selected parameters and filling model ofparametric typhoon wind field and boundary layer model, such as Holland pressureparameter B, maximum wind radius Rmax, friction coefficient CDand boundary layerthickness h. Used empirical model that the boundary layer average wind speedvaried with height to improved the CE typhoon wind field model. According totyphoon Hagupit, Chanthu and Vicente near-Earth observation data, verified theapplicabilityof improved CE typhoon wind field model. Got an ideal simulationresults and shown that the improved CE typhoon wind field model can simulate thetyphoon wind field of the southeast coast.Through the1949-2011years Typhoon Yearbook data and the application ofanalog circle method, selected the250km calculation all data and500km countingonly analog circle data. Applied two kinds of the situation, respectively, to extractthe typhoon data. Using χ2test and K-S test, statistically inferred probability distribution model of the key parameters of typhoons encountered by the China’ssoutheast coast city, Shenzhen, Hong Kong and Shanghai. Analyzed movementspeed VTand central pressure difference Δp obey the Gamma distribution.Simultaneously analyzed the correlation between the typhoon maximum wind speedradius, central pressure difference and latitude, and researched typhoon fillingmodel.Using Monte Carlo simulation method, together with the improved CE typhoonwind field model, the probability distribution of typhoon key parameters ofShenzhen, Hong Kong and Shanghai, and typhoons attenuation model, calculatedextreme typhoon wind sequence, and then using the Weibull distribution and theGumbel distribution fitting extreme wind speed probability distribution and relatedparameters, and forecast extreme wind speed in different return period in Shenzhen,Hong Kong and Shanghai. Analysis the impact of Holland pressure parameter B,ground roughness length z0, analog circle radius and the data selected for extremewind speed. Thought the parameter B model with Vickery08model, annual extremewind speed probability distribution selected Gumbel distribution, and gave thecorresponding parameters estimated.