The Typhoon Disaster Loss Prediction Method Study And Decision Support System Design

Typhoon is a kind of natural disasters having very large destructive power, the loss of people’s life and property security in the coastal areas in our country caused by typhoon is huge, Zhejiang province is located in the east coast of our country, suffering from typhoon disasters frequently. In order to be scientific and effective to strengthen the typhoon forecast, improve the ability of disaster warning, we must increase the research and development of decision support system of disaster prevention and reduction. The following several aspects of the theory and method are studied for the key issues of loss prevention and mitigation comprehensive ability evaluation, prediction and decision support system development.First, analyses various influence factors of typhoon disaster reduction ability in Zhejiang province Systematically and comprehensively, use analytic hierarchy process to screen a variety of factors and establish a scientific and reasonable index system for evaluation of typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation ability have a guiding significance to the typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation work, author use principal component analysis to determine the weight of all factors, and establish a index system for evaluation of typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation ability based on improved weighted TOPSIS method, and then evaluate typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation ability in Zhejiang province quantitatively. Correlation analysis with actual typhoon, objectively reflect the comprehensive prevention disaster reduction situation, it can provide long-term guidance significance for the entire province safety and disaster prevention and mitigation system construction.Second, on the basis of typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation ability assessment, the Relationship between typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation capacity and the typhoon damage index influencing the typhoon disaster losses. With the method of nonlinear regression, from the perspective of statistics, quantitative analysis on the influence of different damage types, functional relationship model between two indexs has been set up eventually. It open up a new direction of the typhoon disaster loss research.Third, the impact factors are chosen by the gray relational theory group. Based on several single forecast results, according to certain rules to establish the corresponding combination forecasting model. The results of several prediction RSME show that combination forecast can well reduce error, effectively improve the reliability of forecasting the coming typhoon’s loss. Fourth, construct the decision support system for typhoon disaster prevention and mitigation in Zhejiang province, the main function module contains the typhoon data management module, model management module, visual management module and background management module. In the process of system design, in-depth integrate system theory, on the basis of database, database management system as the auxiliary, supported by mathematical model prediction, for the purpose of disaster defense measures. Adhere to the concept of system engineering, complete the decision support system design.