Study On The Change Of Major Hydrological Factors During The Past50Years In Che’erchen River Basin

Study on the hydrological effects of human activities under the environment change conditions, inorder to maintain and improve the ecological environment of the arid region of Xinjiang, which hasimportant theoretical and practical significance for the realization of sustainable development of nationaleconomy in Xinjiang, and also safeguard the sustainable use of water resources.This paper takes Che’erchen River Basin of Xinjiang as an example, uses the gray relational analysismethod to analyze water surface evaporation of different periods in study area, applies neural networkmodel with entropy analysis method in analyzing non-glacial water surface evaporation sensitivity. MKand SR methods are carried out in the study area to calculate Che’erchen River Basin monthly, quarterly,years three time-scale precipitation time series trends. Bayesian regularization algorithm combined withBP algorithm are used to predict the runoff of Che’erchen River. This study achieved the followingconclusion:(1) The use of gray relational analysis method demonstrated:the influence of water surfaceevaporation under the year time scale, results show that: both were calculated era by the data overallanalysis, the three factors of the wind speed, sunshine hours and temperature are the most important factorsthat affect the water surface evaporation, the relative humidity and water vapor pressure compared to theminor factors affecting the water evaporation.(2) Based on neural network-default factor method and entropy method of water surface evaporationsensitive factors study results show that: the temperature(including the daily average temperature, dailymaximum temperature and minimum temperature) and wind speed are the most sensitive factors to watersurface evaporation in non-glacial period.(3) Based on the monthly time scale of rainfall time trend analysis, January, February, May andDecember pass the significance level test of5%in the past53years, that means above month’s rainfall wasslowly growth trend, its respectively0.0162mm/a,0.0136mm/a,0.0082mm/a,0.0769mm/a,0.0176mm/a;June to November precipitation trend test results show no increase or decreasing trend in precipitation inthe past53years.(4) In the time trend analysis, spring and winter pass the significance level test of5%, indicating thatthe precipitation was slow growth trend in the past53years, the value are0.1355mm/a,0.0453mm/a;summer and autumn precipitation trend test results show that:the two seasons did not pass the significancelevel test of5%, which means that:the two seasonal precipitation in the past53years no increasing ordecreasing trends; The annual scale precipitation trend analysis passes the significance level test of5%,indicating that year precipitation was slow growth trend in past53years, the value is0.2614mm/a.