| China’s housing prices are soaring, and real estate investment is inhigh-temperature subside since2000, and the issue price has been a focal point intoday’s academic research. Researches of the formation mechanism of China’s realestate price are mainly around the supply level and demand level. There are fourmainstream views:"housing demand-driven theory","real estate cost-push theory","financial support excessive theory" and "speculative demand-led theory". The firsttwo points view that house prices are mainly determined by economic fundamentals,so there‘s no obvious bubble; the latter two view that real estate markets have muchserious foam. But looking at the large number of studies, we find most of thescholars take the national level as the starting point, but fail to take account ofregional heterogeneity. In addition, in aspects of selected methods research andmodel specification, most scholars adopt common measurement models to test,while ignoring the spatial characteristics of the real estate commodity. Based on theabove deficiencies, the paper starts from the decision mechanism of the real estateprices and digs its impact factors, then gives empirical tests separated from thenational and sub-regional levels, aiming at providing a theoretical basis for academicresearch and government’s macro decision-making.Firstly, the paper builds a real estate price decision model in a partialequilibrium perspective by gradually introducing credit and speculative variables.The model shows that the housing prices are determined by income levels, premium,credit support, taxes, interest rates, speculation and other factors, and income, landprices, credit and speculative are pushing factors, while tax is disincentive, but it isdifficult to judge the impact of interest rates on housing prices. Secondly, it uses thismodel, and applies spatial econometric methods to test the mechanism of the impactof China’s real estate prices and regional heterogeneity. The conclusions were asfollows:（1）The prices distribution was on the cluster effect in space, forming a local convergence, overall differentiation‘spatial pattern, especially the LLdistribution‘in western region;（2）overall the income levels, land prices, credit, property taxes, interest rates and speculation have some influence with its directionand extent of regional heterogeneity on house prices;（3）factors of the above mayhave space spillover effects on the price and performance of regional heterogeneity;（4）the real estate market is demand-oriented, financial support and speculative"incitement" type in eastern part; demand-oriented and cost-push type in central;demand-oriented in western;（5）it may have the inflection point on interest rates‘effect, also have differences among different regions, and curbing housing pricesthrough interest rate policy is often ineffective under the current imperfect interestrate system in China. |
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