The Empirical Study About The Exchange Rate Of RMB On The Balance Of Sino-US

Since 1990s, China to America's export and import trade began to appear surplus, and the trade surplus expands unceasingly. The expanding trade surplus also further imbalanced the development of the United State economy, so the trade friction appear constantly. In order to improve Sino-US trade surplus, The United States requests to revalue the RMB more times, then how does the RMB exchange rate influence the Sino-American trade exactly?In order to solve this problem, the paper finds many foreign and domestic literature, find many domestic and foreign experts have different opinions. On the base of the literature, this paper discussed the theory development of the effects and the pathway which the exchange rate to the trade balance. This paper comparatively analysis the relationship between the exchange rate of RMB and the Sino-US trade. At last, this paper adopt the 1995-2009 quarterly data, using Co-integration test, Impulse Response, and Variance decompositions method, estimate the influent of the RMB exchange rate to the Sino-US trade. It is concluded that the RMB exchange rate is not influence the decisive factor of Sino-US trade, the national income plays a crucial role.Full text mainly includes five parts. The first part is the introduction, including the background and significance, and literature review section. The second part is the related theory and influence transmission channel of the RMB exchange rate on Sino-US trade balance. The third part is the RMB exchange rate reform and Sino-US trade status, and the relevant statistical description. The fourth part is empirical analysis for this paper, mainly through econometric methods, and empirical analysis, analysis the influence factors of Sino-US trade and related reasons. The fifth part is the main conclusion and policy suggestions.