Whole Process Of Real Estate Project Risk Identification And Evaluation Research

The real estate industry is the pillar industry of national economy, its healthy development to the national economy plays an important role. Since2008, the state in order to promote the healthy development of the real estate industry and standardize the real estate market, has issued a series of severe macroeconomic regulation and control policy, in effectively curb speculative property speculation and excessive development impact of the problems for the healthy development of the industry at the same time, also increased the risk of real estate investment. policy regulation lead to part of the effective demand is restrained, the real estate market increasingly fierce competition, many enterprise leaders don’t pay attention to the project feasibility study, and market positioning and project positioning, analysis, construction project management of survey and design, promotion and rental strategy research, property management enterprises in the merger and acquisition or eliminated by the market. Painful lessons make many development enterprises realize that only from the perspective of financial analysis or from the perspective of the stage of a project to project risk assessment has been inappropriate, they urgently need a can from the perspective of internal and external environment and project the whole process of project to conduct a comprehensive risk identification and evaluation method, to effectively adapt to the fast-changing market and policy guidance is not clear need of reality.This article was based on a realistic subject to domestic and international risk management theory as the research basis, combining with the real estate policy and market status quo and characteristics of project development and management, the whole process of real estate project is divided into five stages, and then to system identification of risk factors for each stage, and the fuzzy hierarchy comprehensive evaluation method for comprehensive evaluation to the whole process of project risk. Specific research process is as follows:First, based on the theory of risk management at home and abroad results and real estate project risk management research results, combined with China’s real estate market development present situation, analyses the risk in the real estate enterprises in the project management problems, to put forward based on the project the whole process of risk factor identification and comprehensive risk assessment.Second, based on the market characteristics, and policy characteristics and the characteristics of the real estate project development and management, according to the real estate project risk research and expert investigation report, the real estate project development and management of the whole process is divided into five stages: investment decision-making stage, the construction preparation stage, construction stage, project marketing and sale stage, property management stage, and to Systematic identify the risk factors existing in the five stages, to establish the whole process of real estate project risk evaluation index system.Third, based on fuzziness metric characteristics of real estate project risk factors, this article uses the fuzzy hierarchy comprehensive evaluation method to evaluate the whole process risk of real estate project. First of all, using the analytic hierarchy process and Delphi expert judgment method, calculate the risk assessment index system of risk indicators weights at various levels. Secondly, combining with the concrete external environment and the information of development and management, use the Delphi expert judgment method to write the risk membership grade of the assessment index system. Finally, use the fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method to calculate the risk value size of project development and management.Fourth, through researching the whole process risk identification and assessment of the blessing red city project, verified the scientific and operability of the risk identification and risk assessment method of the real estate project whole process.The characteristics and innovation of this paper mainly displays as follows:(1) propose the study of the risk identification and assessment based on the real estate project whole process.(2) Real estate project development and management process is divided into five stages:the investment decision-making stage, and the construction preparation stage, and the construction stage, and the project marketing and sale stage, and the property management stage.(3) presented the risk factor index system of based on the whole process of real estate project.(4) The analytic hierarchy process and the Delphi expert judgment method is determined to value the weights of the risk indicators.(5) The fuzzy comprehensive evaluation method is determined to value the real estate project integrated risk.the study expands results the application scope of the project risk management theory, it not only can be used in the real estate development enterprise project risk identification and assessment, and also can be used for real estate project stakeholders in project development and management of investment risk evaluation, to promote sustained and healthy development of real estate industry has reference value and operation significance.