| Bulk commodities mostly are strategic production materials and life supplies, whichhave decisive influence on a country’s macroeconomic. In the past ten years, with the rapiddevelopment of city modernization and industrialization, China’s demand for crude oil,iron ore and other bulk commodities are rising. So our country gradually changed from anet exporter to a net importer of bulk commodities. At the same time, the price of bulkcommodities on the international market appeared sharp fluctuation with obvious up trend,which is considered to be one of the main reasons leading to the imported inflation inrecent years. Therefore, the research on the effects of international bulk commodities’ pricefluctuation on prices in china has important practical significance and theory value.Based on predecessors’ research, first, the article qualitatively analyzed thepathways.Then using VAR model, Granger causality test and other methods for quantitativeanalysis and construct each pathway. Finally using the impulse response and variancedecomposition method to carry on the short-term dynamic analysis under the mixed pathways.Results show that international bulk commodities’ price fluctuation have a significantimpact on Prices in China. Its transmission is as follows: first, the product price is the mainpathway, which can explain about15%-15%changes in consumer price; Followed by theexchange rate pathway, which can explain about10%changes in consumer price; Finally,monetary pathway is not obvious. In addition, because the CRB futures price index is dailyreport, and ahead of changes in China’s consumer price index (CPI) about six months, itcan be used as a leading indicator of inflation pressure in China.Finally, the article have do systematic and detailed analysis at the overall level andvarious pathways level.And ten several feasible policy suggestions are put forward. |
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