| China’s real estate industry is the pillar industry of the national economy, involving more than50industries from upstream and downstream industries, and the good operation of the real estate industry can not only promote the development of related industries, but also can improve the employment situation of the whole society. The real estate industry is a capital-intensive industry, requiring a lot of money to get the land resources and make the project development. Because the real estate industry is vulnerable to be influenced by national policy, there are many uncontrollable uncertainties, moreover, the project development cycle is long and the speed of capital returns is very slow, the good funding cycle becomes a fundamental guarantee of the smooth development in the real estate company. The company’s operating uncertainty is increasing and the risk of funding strand breaks is rising with the macroeconomic volatility and the regulation of the real estate market.This paper analyzes the status and influencing factors of the real estate company’s capital chain crisis, and then establishes an early warning model to forecast the crisis in the capital chain, finally this paper gives suggestions to prevent the crisis of capital chain for the real estate company. This paper uses the SPSS statistical analysis software to comply with144samples meeting the conditions of the real estate industry in China A-share market in2007-2009.With significant test and factor analysis, this paper finally determines six principal component factors and four non-financial indicators to do logistic regression analysis, and establishes the early warning model to predict whether the company will occur capital chain crisis or not.Based on the above research, this paper draws the following conclusions:(1) financial indicators in profitability and solvency, non-financial indicators in the shareholding structure, and audit opinion indicator exist significant differences between the crisis sample group and the normal sample group; financial indicators in cash flow, category of the controlling shareholder, the board structure and management equity holding indicators exist no significant difference in the two samples.(2) Logistic regression result shows that six principal component factors have significant impact for forecasting the occurrence of the capital chain crisis for the real estate company, while the four non-financial indicators have no impact, and finally we get the accuracy rate of75.70%for the early warning model.(3) The factors of profitability, solvency, working capital management efficiency and revenue growth rate have significant influence in the capital chain condition of the real estate company. Finally, this paper proposes four solutions for the real estate company to prevent the capital chain crisis, hoping to be helpful to the managers of the real estate company and make a healthy and stable development of the entire real estate industry. |
