| As an important part of the total fixed asset investment, real estate investment plays an important role in national economic growth. In recent years, some areas of our country’s real estate investment appears overlarge scale, excessive growth, unbalanced structural and other issues, bringing tremendous potential for the steady growth of national economic growth. Therefore, multi-perspective study on interaction between real estate investment and economic growth has great significance for government departments to formulate relevant policies, implementation macro-control, and the realization of the positive interaction between real estate investment and macroeconomic.This paper takes the real estate investment and economic growth theory as guidelines, and select1998-2010year time series data of Yang Zhou to make a quantitative analysis on real estate investment and economic growth:Selecting time series data of real estate investment and GDP, using the co-integration theory to analyze long-term equilibrium relation between real estate investment and Yang Zhou economic growth. The results show that, in the past thirteen years, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship with the movement, and this relationship is1:0.5538551. And on this basis we establish the error correction mode (ECM), making a quantitative analysis on the adjustment of the system when real estate investment and economic growth deviating from the long-run equilibrium in short term. At the same time, according to the stimulating efficiency theory, we calculate the efficiency of real estate investment in driving economic growth. The results showed that short-term readjustment is0.201829, and Yang Zhou real estate investments on economic growth stimulating efficiency at a high level of3.3517.To make a further analysis of dynamic response relationship between Yang Zhou real estate investment and GDP, this paper select impulse response function based on vector auto-regression model, and use variance decomposition to analyze contribution rate of real estate investment and economic growth on the respective aspect in the next15years. According to the results, with the passage of time, economic growth is the gradual emergence of a positive reaction, and the wavy trend of increase, eight years maximum, to0.060819, this indicates that the real estate investment on economic growth has a stronger, longer duration in the same direction, and the impact of the level of contribution rate remained at65%level for a long time.Finally, this paper analyzes the real estate investment role in boosting its associated industries; we select the cement industry, steel industry and the plastics industry as the research objects. The results show that the real estate investment has large and long duration. The Yang Zhou City real estate investment has played a significant role in boosting on the production of cement industry, steel industry, production and plastic products industry production.According to the results of the analysis, we found the problems between Yang Zhou City real estate investment and economic growth. At last, we make some specific suggestions for the problems. |
