The Shandong Economic Growth Empirical Studies Of The Impact On Employment

Employment growth is the premise of economic growth. Given "Okun Law", the negative correlation between the increasing of GDP and unemployment rate, that is, when the economy maintain its rapid growth, unemployment rate usually keeps low, if the economic growth’s speed is lower, relatively it can result to high unemployment. However, it doesn’t work in Shandong Province. Shandong’s fast-growing economy cannot promote its employment, while unemployment rate in Shandong does not decline effectively. As what we find is not in keeping with "Okun Law" which indicates that fast-increasing economy changes with employment growth in the same direction, thus, this is the key in macro-economy area. Using co-integration theory, this paper has carried on demonstration analysis on economy increasing and employment growth, and studied the "motivational role" between economy and employment and the relationship between Shandong’s economic structure and employment structure. Finally, according to the situation of employment, this article proposed some suggestions about improving employment.One of the advantages of this article is that the writer thinks of innovation in methods and in models. Using VaR model and co-integration theory, the writer researches the relationship between economic growth and employment in long-balance. At last, in the situation of Shandong Province’s economy data, this paper comes to the conclusion that economic growth and employment is in long-balance, and employment growth is the Granger relationship of economical growth. In other words, employment increasing can promote economy growth, but not vice versa.The first chapter is for introduction, details the background and significance of the paper, and then illustrates the research objects and methods and structure.The second chapter is about summary of the relevant theory, shows some concepts like economic growth, employment, unemployment and employment elasticity, and observes economic growth and employment theory in western countries. Finally, this part introduces the theory about economic growth and employment on Marx. The third chapter is based on the empirical analysis of the relationship between economical growth and employment growth in Shandong. We firstly introduce the economic growth, and then utilize the descriptive statistical method to study the relationship between employment and economic growth. Finally, for employment growth and economic growth, this part uses the Granger causality test to solve that when there is a causal relationship between employment growth and economic growth, then carries on the unit root test and co-integration test, with the aim at finding out the long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and employment growth. At last this paper finds that in Shandong Province, there is a long-term equilibrium relationship between economic growth and employment growth, that is to say, in Shandong Province there is an internal pull function between economic growth and employment growth.The fourth chapter is to research the industries structure’s influence on economic growth and employment structure. This part details the meaning about industries structure and its changing history in Shandong. Then the writer makes the use of industries structure and economic data to analysis the contribution to economic growth from thrice industries. And then using statistical data, this chapter studies industrial structure’s influence on employment structure in Shandong.The fifth chapter is to make conclusions and countermeasures. This part summaries the paper’s main conclusions and then provides the suggestion on promoting employment.