Research On The Management Of Chinese Inflation Expectation

A new round of inflation has started from2007.and the growth of CPI once rose to6.5percent which was far more than3%of the central bank’s policy objectives in2011. Because of the inflation expectations self-fulfilling mechanism.the article founds that the inflation expectations is the subjective factor in the inflation-induced inflation,leading to the spiraling of prices. In response to this inflation.the Central Economic Work Conference came up with the resolution of "managing inflation expectations" for the first time.stressing the importance of managing inflation and adjusting the deposit reserve ratio repeatedly,in order to adjust the loose monetary policy which is reducing overheated economic development trend of China’s unrealistic.The issues of Inflation expectations management directly related to the development of macroeconomic stability,and it doesn’t be ignored. In order to understand the inflationary expectations had different characteristics in different times and the relationship of the macro and micro factors,the analysis of the formation of inflation expectations is essential. It insisted that the incompletely rational expectation exists in the present economic,and this is expected to sustainability and subjected to a variety of uncertainties. The formation of inflation expectations is subjected to a variety of macro and micro factors,macroeconomic factors such as the disputation of "single monetary policy"and"comparative monetary policy ",the central bank’s reputation of trust,the excess liquidity which is accepted by pronoun,and the gold reserves that is considered with the existing indicators of inflation. Microeconomic factors have the public behavior and the anchoring effect which has more specific image. Through a series of empirical test,the article finds alternative indicators of inflation expectations,and then considering these factors will affect inflation expectations with the various influencing factors Granger causality test and impulse response. After that the management of inflation expectations measures and proposals are put forward on the basis of previous analysis.