The Learning Effectsin The Formation Of Inflation Expectations: Measurement, Influence Factors And Policy Implications

On 21st October,2009, the executive meetings of the State Council in China first proposed that "the management of inflation expectation", which led to the expectation, as a concept in the economics, emerged in the eye shot in the public by official form. In the last few years, our country’s sustained and expanding monetary policy makes China’s inflation situation increasing seriously, how to predict inflation effectively becomes the key to the effective implementation of monetary policy. The public’s inflation expectation is the key factor to affect the actual inflation level, through, the effective monetary policy means to manage the public expectation which is the effective way to realize the policy target of price stability. In real life, the process of forming inflation expectations is an adaptive learning process, the public adopped various channels to obtain macroeconomic information, and then analyze these information, so as to adjust their own economic behavior, which is very important to ensure the stability of inflation expectations, so when inflation is expected to occur frequently, it will exacerbate the deterioration of the real economy. Therefore, the study on the inflation expectations has important practical significance.Inflation expectations are generally considered to be a feature of adaptive expectations, that is, a one-time formation of economic entities can not accurately fit the actual inflation level, but has a use of economic data, establish and estimate the model of macroeconomic forecasting, when the new data is obtained, it is determined that they need to continue to study the formation of inflation expectations, and the introduction of adaptive learning mechanism, not only to form a more reasonable inflation expectations, but also to improve the effectiveness of monetary policy adjustment.In this paper, based on the theory of adaptive inflation expectations, which will exist in the learning mechanism of the formation of inflation expectation in our country(here we call this mechanism of inflation expectations the learning effect). In this paper, the difference of Evans (1985) and andHonkapohja Evans (2001) is used to define the learning effect, and the expectation of the formula learning effect is added to the expectation of inflation expectation; Under the assumption of rational expectations, the average value of the first three quarters of the actual inflation rate in our country is the rational expectation of inflation expectations, and the model is based on Xu Yaping (2010). The VAR model is used to calculate the relative data; Thirdly, the paper analyzes the factors affecting the learning effect of monetary policy. The paper analyzes the 9 indicators, such as monetary policy, the actual inflation, exchange rate and other factors. Through the establishment of SVAR model, the paper makes a detailed analysis of the impact of factors on learning effect. The results show that the effect of financial structure and real inflation has some delay; Finally, according to the above analysis process and conclusion, it has some inspiration to our country’s monetary policy formulation, which is to control the money supply, interest rate, exchange rate market, improve the transparency and credibility of monetary policy. Four aspects of the relevant policy recommendations are proposed to further improve the effectiveness of monetary policy in China.