An Empirical Study On Financial Crisis Prediction Of The Real Estate Listed Companies In China

In2008, the United States began a subprime mortgage crisis, which soon had a significant influnce to the global economic situation. The source of the crisis is the real estate industry, so the real estate industry has an important economic status in a country, especially for China which has a large population.The real estate industry is a industry which has a high degree industrial correlativeness:its production and sales have a relationship with the bank financia linstitutions; its construction process involves with cement, building materials and steel, etc. It’s industry status is obvious. Because of the economic crisis, our country’s economic situation is not optimistic in these years. So we have a bank credit crunch, which leading dropping volumes, downing sales and a difficulty capital turnover of a lot of real estate enterprises. At the same time, to curb the bad development of the real estate industry, our state has frequent policies, making the industry development space become smaller. In the background of the trouble, most of the real estate enterprises have appeared different deterioration of the financial situation. So having a financial crisis warning research for the industry and getting a suitable predicting model has important practical significance.Firstly, this paper summarizes the financial crisis predicting research results in domestic and abroad and puts forward the research idea. Then, this thesis elaborates the related theory of financial crisis warning, selects the model, variables and samples, determines the relevant data though extraction of the factors. Last, this thesis does an empirical analysis through logistic regression. It focuses on the change of the model’s effects after introduced non-financial variables at the basis of financial variables. At the same time, this paper makes specific solutions on how to prevent enterprise’s financial crisis.This paper includes the following five parts:The first part is introduction. It firstly discusses the choice background by stating the status, basic characteristics and challenges of real estate industry to draw out the research significance. Then evaluates the the current study situation through summarizing the financial crisis warning research of domestic and abroad. Finally, it determinates the research framework and innovations of this thesis.The second part is theoretical explanations and the choice of early warning models. Firstly, this part elaborates the related theory of financial crisis warning, including the meaning and characteristics of financial crisis, the basic theory of early warning. Secondly, it determines the suitable model through model evaluation and comparison.The third part is the design before empirical research. This part firstly determines the needding sample of empirical analysis, and selects the preliminary financial warning variables and non-financial warning variables. Then it determines the needding factor variables through normality test, significant test and factors extraction.The fourth part is empirical research. Firstly, It determines the model’s coefficient by financial factors, and then the model’s coefficient again by financial factors and non-financial factors. Finally, this part compares the model’s accuracy by testing the predicting outcomes between the original samples and test samples.The fifth part is the conclusions and recommendations. This part gives the empirical conclusions according to the empirical results, and proposes relevant suggestions for the real estate company.The innovation of this paper is improving the variable selection, including both financial variables and non-financial variables, At the same time this paper adds some new elements, such as inventory falling price percentage, real estate consumer price index, etc.