The Financial Distress Prediction Of The Real Estate Listed Companies

The real estate industry is the most rapidly in recent years one of the industry development. Since1998, the real estate industry has become a pillar industry of the national economy in China after the housing currency reform. However, Chinese real estate industry starts late, the characteristics of quick development policy making industry is unsound, such as in the process of the development of real estate industry also appear in many problems, many listed real estate enterprises have frequent financial crisis. The author in this paper combining previous research method and experience in real estate industry, trying to build a suitable for the real estate industry financial crisis warning model.First this paper analyzes the characteristics of the financial crisis in real estate. This paper takes Shenzhen and Shanghai A-share listed in China real estate enterprises as the research object. It selects20listed real estate company by special treatment from2002to2009as research. And then it selects35similar financial asset normal companies as comparison group. According to the scale of the assets to find consistent financial normal company. Then select financial crisis T-3years indicators, the indicators includes financial indicators and non-financial indicators. Financial indicators include profitability index, solvency index, operation ability, growth ability index, index cash flow index and capital scale index. The non-financial indicators include corporate governance. There are27financial indicators and23non-financial indicators. First, we’ll take all indexes non-parameter test in order to eliminate the insensitive index. And then make the correlation analysis to the remaining indexes. Finally there left five financial indicators and2non-financial indicators. And we will use these7indicators make financial crisis pre-warning model. Next we take55real estate companies into the model for accuracy inspection. At last we analysis the characteristics of the model, which has certain directive significance to the financial crisis pre-warning of real estate.