| Since the2008financial crisis, the world economy had experienced the stormy international financial crisis and now it is entering to a difficult recovery period. Due to the factors of economic descending cycle and the state industrial policy adjustment, the domestic manufacturing, real estate, shipbuilding, steel trade are involved with the high-risk industries. Among them, the manufacturing industry,as the foundation of the national economy, is the strong support of the economic index in good operation. However, because of the economic descending, export weakness, labor costs rising, order losing and so on, the manufacturing development situation is not optimistic, the daily operation is facing a great challenge and credit risk is starting to expose. Therefore, the credit risk measurement of manufacturing listed company needs to be solved urgently. Based on this, the paper adopts qualitative and quantitative methods to carry out theoretical analysis and empirical research for the credit risk measurement of manufacturing listed companies in our country.First of all, the paper elaborates the relevant credit risk literature at home and abroad according to the credit risk measurement index model and non-index model. Meanwhile, the research object, research perspective, research method are summarized based on the scholars’ research results which are good inspiration for the paper’s research subject.Secondly, the theoretical knowledge of credit risk is expounded and the credit risk measurement models are analyzed according to the index model and non-index model, in order to deepen our cognition of the model and set the theoretical foundation for model’s selection and use. At the same time, the causes and characteristics of manufacturing listed companies" credit risk in our country are analyzed.Through the above review of credit risk measurement literatures and the analysis of theoretical knowledge and various models, we find that:the existing studies concerning credit risk measurement of domestic listed company are carried out respectively from two unilateral factors either accounting statements cross section data or capital market time series data. However, the credit risk of listed company is a process of long term accumulation, and the accounting statement cross section data with "backward-looking "characters, is a kind of credit subject historical record; the capital market time series data as a leading indicator, with characters of "forward-looking". Therefore, if both of two aspects combine effectively, covering the more comprehensive future breach prediction information, then whether the overall forecasting effect is better than a single factor or not, is the main purpose of this study.Therefore, combining the actual situation and the applicability of related models, the author determines to use the financial ratio index as accounting statements cross section data. That is the preliminary identification of credit risk based on the principal component analysis and discriminant analysis; Then using the stock price time series data as the capital market data to calculate default distance DD based on the KMV model. Next, mixing financial ratio indexes and default distance DD into the Logistic model to improve the model recognition ability.The empirical results show that the overall predict accuracy of improved Logistic model is85%, which is5%higher than the prediction accuracy of financial ratio index data analysis model. That means the combination of financial ratio index and default distance DD model is effective to model’prediction. So far, from two aspects of accounting statements cross section data and capital market time series data, the author puts forward two-stage credit risk measurement system for the Chinese manufacturing listed companies by using complementary advantages of different models and methods with the purpose of recognizing and measuring manufacturing credit risk, which provides the preliminary theoretical basis to its effective management. |
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