The Influence Factors And Predictive Analysis On Land Price In L

The land has prices,because it brings profits. The land rent determines the existence ofthe land price. The price of the same land can be quite different in different periods, Themacroscopical and microspical influences cause the rising or falling in price of land. Toconsummate the domestic land market, it is of great significance to recognize the influencefactors of the land price and predict the land price according to some theories and ways.The thesis summarizes the theories of the land price involved from home and abroad,which is the basis of the study. And it analyses the existing circumstances of the land and theland price and the influence factors in L, which consists of nine fields that influcence the landprice, covering the land transaction system, the macro-control policy, the interest rate andcredit policy, the city planning, the land-based finance, the demographic factors, theindustrial structure, the traffic construction and the market demand; and discusses theinfluences to the land market and real estate market caused by the land price.The thesis alsopredicts the land price in L in the following three years according to the prediction model---ARMA, Results display，The next three years, residential land, commercial land and industrialland prices showed monotonically increasing trend, One of the largest increase of commercialland, The three annual growth of about39.04%;Residential land three years growth of about24.31%; industrial land or the smallest, only7.88%. Through or predictable, businessinvestment will be the real estate developers hot pursuit. For residential land, according to thepredicted results, each quarter price increases, but the annual increase gradually decline,description of residential land has been the national regulation of affect, or smooth with eachpassing day. Compared to the expensive commercial land and residential land, industrial landgains most insipid, and the industrial land the land itself characteristic, as well as L city hall,the district government on the policy of capital attraction privilege and a series of factorsrelated to.Then it gives out policy recommendations which are based on the result of prdiction,analysis and evaluation and the development of domestic land price may benefit from, andconsists of policy, credit, taxation, security and planning.